MAYBANK IB EXPECTS MALAYSIA'S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO REMAIN STABLE IN 2024

Maybank Investment Bank (IB) expects a steady unemployment rate of 3.4% in 2024.

In its research note, it said the unemployment rate eased to 3.3% in November 2023 (October 2023: 3.4%), the level just before the COVID-19 outbreak, as employment growth continued to top labour force growth.

In November 2023, employment growth recorded 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) while in October 2023 it was 2.0% y-o-y. 

"Jobs increases were registered across all sectors, and informal jobs again hit a fresh record high."

"Given the 11 months of 2023, the jobless rate stood at 3.4%. The likely outcome for a full-year 2023 unemployment rate is 3.4% versus our estimate of 3.5%. Hence, we expect the rate to be stable at 3.4% in 2024,” said Maybank IB. 

According to the Department of Statistics Malaysia, jobs growth in November 2023 continued to expand in the services sector, particularly in information and communication, food and beverage and transportation and storage activities, as well as the manufacturing, construction and mining and quarrying sectors although employment in the agriculture sector declined.

Meanwhile, the youth unemployment rate eased to 10.6% in November 2023 (October: 10.7%) although it is still above the pre-pandemic low of 9.9% in December 2019.

Informal jobs that are "own account workers", such as those earning daily income, smallholders and gig workers, have been rising since January 2021 to 2.39 million and reached a new peak of 2.99 million in November 2023 (October 2023: 2.985 million).

This was due to growth in informal jobs outpacing total employment growth of 6.6% to 2.4% for the 11 months of 2023, said Maybank IB.