BNM: Malaysia's 4Q2022 economic expansion slows to 7% on waning low base effect and end of pandemic stimulus measures

Malaysia’s economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew by 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q2022), bringing 2022's full-year GDP growth to 8.7%.

以国内生产总值（GDP）衡量的马来西亚经济在2022年第四季度（4Q2022）同比增长7.0%，使2022年全年GDP增​​长达到8.7%。

The moderation in GDP from the high growth of 14.2% recorded in 3Q2022 was due to waning low base effect and support from stimulus measures, said Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) at the Economic and Financial Developments for 4Q2022 briefing on 10th February.

马来西亚国家银行（BNM）2 月 10 日在 2022 年第四季度经济和金融发展简报会上表示，由于低基数效应减弱和刺激措施的支持，GDP 从 2022 年第三季度 14.2% 的高增长放缓。

At 7.0%, the growth was still above the long-term average of 5.1%, driven by private-sector activity, which remained the key driver of growth, supported by private consumption and investment.

在私人消费和投资的支持下，私营部门活动仍然是经济增长的主要驱动力，增长 7.0%，仍高于 5.1% 的长期平均水平。

Meanwhile, overall export growth moderated in line with weaker external demand.

与此同时，随着外部需求疲软，整体出口增长放缓。

“This was partly offset by the resilient performance in exports of electrical and electronics (E&E) products and higher tourism activities. The services and manufacturing sectors continued to drive growth,” said BNM in a statement.

“这部分被电气和电子 (E&E) 产品出口的弹性表现和更高的旅游活动所抵消。服务业和制造业继续推动增长，”国行在一份声明中表示。

Risks remain tilted to downside for 2023 

2023 年风险仍倾向于下行

At a press conference on 10th February, BNM governor Tan Sri Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus said risk to growth remains tilted to the downside due to weaker-than-expected global growth and further escalation of geopolitical tensions.

在2月10日的新闻发布会上，国行行长丹斯里Nor Shamsiah Mohd Yunus表示，由于全球经济增长弱于预期以及地缘政治紧张局势进一步升级，经济增长仍面临下行风险。

“The re-emergence of significant supply chain disruptions also impacts growth. Despite the challenging environment, we do not discount the possibility of the growth being higher than expected,” said Nor Shamsiah.

“再次出现严重的供应链中断也会影响增长。尽管环境充满挑战，但我们不排除增长高于预期的可能性，” Nor Shamsiah说。

For 2023, the Malaysian economy is expected to expand at a more moderate pace amid a challenging external environment.

到 2023 年，在充满挑战的外部环境下，马来西亚经济预计将以更温和的速度扩张。

However, she said domestic demand will continue to drive growth, supported by the continued recovery in the labour market and the realisation of multi-year investment projects. The services and manufacturing sectors, in particular, will also continue to support growth.

不过，她表示，在劳动力市场持续复苏和多年投资项目实现的支持下，国内需求将继续推动增长。特别是服务业和制造业也将继续支持增长。

Financing conditions sustained

融资条件持续

Credit to the private non-financial sector grew 4.7% in 4Q2022 against 3.5% in 3Q2022 amid the lower outstanding loan growth. Outstanding corporate bonds expanded 4.6%.

由于未偿贷款增长较低，私人非金融部门信贷在 2022 年第四季度增长 4.7%，高于 2022 年第三季度的 3.5%。未偿付公司债券增长 4.6%。

Outstanding business loans rose 3.3% as the sustained strong growth in loan repayments outpaced that of loan disbursements.

由于贷款还款的持续强劲增长超过了贷款支付的增长，未偿商业贷款增长了 3.3%。

“Despite the slower growth in loan applications, loan disbursement growth was sustained particularly for working capital loans as firms continued to draw down on their existing credit facilities,” the governor added.

州长补充说：“尽管贷款申请增长放缓，但由于企业继续动用现有信贷额度，贷款支付增长得以持续，尤其是流动资金贷款。”

For households, outstanding loan growth expanded 5.5% amid the slower growth in loan disbursements and sustained growth in loan repayments.

对于家庭，由于贷款支付增长放缓和贷款偿还持续增长，未偿贷款增长了 5.5%。

“Financing approvals and disbursements remain robust, sustaining above quarterly levels last year. Disbursement, in particular, was exceptionally strong throughout 2022, registering double-digit growth in all quarters although moderated slightly to 12.1% in the 4Q2022,” Nor Shamsiah said.

“融资批准和支付仍然强劲，维持在去年的季度水平之上。尤其是支出，在整个 2022 年异常强劲，尽管在 2022 年第四季度略微放缓至 12.1%，但所有季度都实现了两位数的增长，” Nor Shamsiah说。

She noted that the banking sector remains well positioned to support the financing needs of the domestic economy, owing to its financial strength backed by high levels of capital and equity buffers.

她指出，由于高水平的资本和股权缓冲支持其财务实力，银行业仍然能够很好地支持国内经济的融资需求。

“Banks also maintain sufficient provisions against potential credit losses given some households, corporates and small and medium enterprise (SME) borrowers remain vulnerable in the current environment of elevated cost and softer growth outlook,” she said. 

她说：“鉴于一些家庭、企业和中小企业 (SME) 的借款人在当前成本上升和增长前景疲软的环境下仍然脆弱，银行也为潜在的信贷损失保留了足够的准备金。”  

Ringgit broadly stable against trading partners

令吉兑贸易伙伴大致稳定

Nor Shamsiah said in 2022, the domestic financial conditions eased following a slower pace of monetary policy tightening along with indications that inflation has peaked, especially in the US, as well as the reopening of China’s economy.

Nor Shamsiah表示，在 2022 年，随着货币政策紧缩步伐放缓，以及有迹象表明通胀已见顶，尤其是在美国，以及中国经济重新开放，国内金融状况有所缓和。

Reflecting the global developments, the ringgit and regional currencies have also been somewhat lifted.

反映全球发展，令吉和区域货币也有所提升。

“So far 2023, the ringgit remains on the appreciation path with year-to-date adjustments of 2.4%. The performance of the ringgit against major trading partners also remains broadly stable,” she added.

“到 2023 年为止，令吉仍处于升值轨道，今年迄今调整幅度为 2.4%。令吉兑主要贸易伙伴的表现也大致保持稳定，”她补充说。

The nominal effective exchange rate appreciated by 0.4% during the quarter.

本季度名义有效汇率升值 0.4%。

“Moving forward, BNM will continue to closely monitor global and domestic financial conditions, and ensure orderly financial market adjustments,” she added.

“展望未来，国行将继续密切关注全球和国内金融状况，并确保金融市场有序调整，”她补充说。