Steady demand projected for Malaysia property sector

The local property sector is not out of the woods going into 2023, with its long-term dynamics still on the mend, says Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research.

丰隆投资银行（HLIB）研究部表示，进入 2023 年，当地房地产行业并未走出困境，其长期动态仍在改善。

In its latest report, the research house believes the housing oversupply issue is easing, which in turn will support a more healthy increase in house prices moving forward.

该研究机构在其最新报告中认为，住房供应过剩问题正在缓解，这反过来将支持房价在未来更健康地上涨。

“However, the biggest stumbling block to the sector recovery remains the labour shortage situation, which impedes the acceleration of site progress and developers from pursuing more aggressive launches,” it added.

“然而，行业复苏的最大绊脚石仍然是劳动力短缺的情况，这阻碍了地盘进度的加速和开发商追求更积极的推出，”它补充道。

HLIB Research noted property developers under its coverage registered commendable third-quarter (3Q22) results, with four coming in above expectations, three within and one below.

HLIB Research 指出，其研究范围内的房地产开发商在第三季度 (2022 年第三季度) 取得了可喜的业绩，其中四家高于预期，三家低于预期，一家低于预期。

When stacked against consensus, there were two above, five within and one below expectations.

当与共识叠加时，有两项高于预期，五项符合预期，一项低于预期。

“The positive surprise mainly stemmed from stronger-than-expected sales, especially from completed or near-completion projects.

“积极的惊喜主要源于销售强于预期，尤其是来自已完成或接近完成的项目。

“In terms of sales, four developers are on track or have exceeded their full-year sales target, while four are lagging behind,” the research house pointed out.

该研究机构指出：“在销售方面，有四家开发商步入正轨或已超过全年销售目标，而四家则落后。”

For developers with sales trailing targets, HLIB Research noted this was mainly due to a slowdown in new launches for the year.

HLIB Research 指出，对于有销售落后目标的开发商，这主要是由于今年新推出的项目放缓。

It added the main reason for the slowdown in launches was due to supply-side issues such as the labour shortage and volatile building material costs.

它补充说，推出速度放缓的主要原因是劳动力短缺和建筑材料成本波动等供应方面的问题。

The research house expects the labour shortage issue to persist in the near term, impacting developers’ progress and billing recognition.

该研究机构预计劳动力短缺问题将在短期内持续存在，影响开发商的进展和账单确认。

According to the National Property Information Centre or Napic preliminary 3Q22 housing data, residential transaction volume saw a healthy pick-up of 11.2% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), supported by the economic recovery and healthy job market and rose 56.2% year-on-year (y-o-y), given the low base in the previous year due to lockdown restrictions.

根据国家房地产信息中心或 Napic 初步的 3Q22 住房数据，在经济复苏和健康的就业市场的支持下，住宅交易量环比健康回升 11.2%，同比增长 56.2%同比（y-o-y），考虑到上一年由于锁定限制而基数较低。

Due to the lack of new launches this year, sales are mainly supported by completed units and ongoing projects, thus, contributing to the easing of unsold units. Malaysia’s House Price Index (HPI) eased 2.1% q-o-q and was flattish at 0.7% y-o-y.

由于今年缺乏新推出的项目，销售主要由已完工单位和在建项目支撑，因此有助于缓解未售出单位。马来西亚的房价指数 (HPI) 环比下跌 2.1%，同比持平于 0.7%。

HLIB Research said, “We believe the tepid HPI reflects the previous overhang situation, which peaked in 4Q21. In the near term, we anticipate demand will hold steady supported by the healthy economy and improvement in the job market.”

HLIB Research 表示：“我们认为不温不火的 HPI 反映了之前的过剩情况，该情况在 2021 年第 4 季度达到顶峰。在短期内，我们预计需求将在健康的经济和就业市场的改善的支持下保持稳定。”

For developers that have ample ongoing projects and completed inventories, HLIB Research said, “They are likely to remain cautious and continue to adopt a wait-and-see approach in new launches, given that the labour supply remains tight while building material costs have yet to stabilise.”

HLIB Research 表示，对于拥有大量正在进行的项目和已完成库存的开发商，“他们可能会保持谨慎，并在新推出的项目中继续采取观望态度，因为劳动力供应仍然紧张，而建筑材料成本尚未稳定下来。”

Hence, the research house has maintained a “neutral” rating on the sector.

因此，研究机构对该行业维持“中性”评级。

HLIB Research noted the economy is expected to be more resilient, anchored by firm domestic demand, recovery in tourism activities and large infrastructure projects.

HLIB Research 指出，在强劲的国内需求、旅游业活动的复苏和大型基础设施项目的支撑下，经济预计将更具弹性。

Under the new administration, reining in inflation and managing the cost of living are at the top of the government’s agenda which should augur well for property demand.

在新政府的领导下，控制通货膨胀和管理生活成本是政府议程的首要任务，这应该预示着房地产需求良好。

Furthermore, building material costs such as steel bar prices have come off the mid-year peak by around 15% to 20% with the exception of cement prices, which are creeping up again with the current levels matching their peak during the middle of the year.

此外，钢筋价格等建筑材料成本已从年中高点回落约 15% 至 20%，但水泥价格除外，水泥价格再次攀升，目前的水平与年中的高点相当.