Bank Negara expected to further tighten policy

The core inflation, which excludes administered and volatile price items, reached a new peak in October at 4.1% year-on-year (y-o-y), even though the country’s headline inflation has been moderating to 4% in the same month.

核心通胀（不包括管理和波动性价格项目）在10月份达到了新的峰值，同比增长4.1%，尽管该国的总体通胀率在同月已放缓至4%。

In August and September, the core inflation rates were 3.8% and 4% respectively.

8月和9月，核心通胀率分别为3.8%和4%。

Against such a backdrop, economists anticipate Bank Negara to further tighten its monetary policy, potentially through two more rounds of overnight policy rate (OPR) hike in the first quarter of 2023.

在这样的背景下，经济学家预计国家银行将进一步收紧货币政策，可能在 2023 年第一季度再加息两轮隔夜政策利率 （OPR）。

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research said that the rising core inflation signals the build-up of underlying inflationary pressure due mainly to the recovery in domestic demand and labour market.

豐隆投资银行研究公司表示，核心通胀上升标志着潜在通胀压力的积累，这主要是由于国内需求和劳动力市场的复苏。

“In view of the rising core inflation and continued expansion, we maintain our expectation for Bank Negara to raise the OPR by another 25 basis points (bps) in January and March next year, bringing the OPR to 3.25%,” it said in a note on 29th November 2022.

 “鉴于核心通胀上升和持续扩张，我们维持对国家银行在明年1月和3月将OPR再提高25个基点（bps）的预期，使OPR达到3.25%，”它在2022年11月29日的一份报告中表示。

In October, core inflation was driven by higher food and non-alcoholic beverages, transportation as well as recreation services and culture, alongside steady growth in housing, utilities and other fuels.

10月份，核心通胀是由食品和非酒精饮料、交通以及娱乐服务和文化的上涨以及住房、公用事业和其他燃料的稳定增长推动的。

CGS-CIMB Research also said that the continued rise in core inflation could indicate further monetary policy tightening ahead.

CGS-CIMB Research还表示，核心通胀的持续上升可能表明货币政策将进一步收紧。

It expects two 25-bps OPR hikes, bringing the benchmark interest rate to 3.25% by end-2023.

它预计两次25个基点的OPR上调，到2023年底将基准利率提高到3.25%。

It is, however, noteworthy that Malaysia’s headline inflation has slowed down in recent months as the low base effect wears off, together with the decrease in commodity prices.

然而，值得注意的是，随着低基数效应的消退，以及大宗商品价格的下跌，马来西亚的总体通胀在最近几个月有所放缓。

The producer price index decreased from a high of 11.6% in March 2022 to 4.9% in September 2022, dragged by falling costs in agriculture and mining production.

受农业和采矿生产成本下降的拖累，生产者价格指数从2022年3月的11.6%的高位下降到2022年9月的4.9%。

Minimal cost past-through to consumers would ultimately help to lower inflation.

消费者的最小成本最终将有助于降低通货膨胀。

Nevertheless, CGS-CIMB Research said the headline inflation is likely to remain elevated next year.

尽管如此，CGS-CIMB Research表示，明年整体通胀可能会保持高位。

 “In the recent November monetary policy meeting, Bank Negara highlighted that it expects headline inflation to remain elevated in 2023 amid demand and cost pressure with risk ‘tilted to the upside’.

“在最近11月的货币政策会议上，国家银行强调，由于需求和成本压力，风险”倾向于上行“，预计2023年总体通胀将保持高位。

“However, with the recent appointment of a new government, we anticipate inflation containment efforts to continue in line with the pledge given to prioritise in addressing the rising cost of living.

“然而，随着最近任命的新政府，我们预计通胀控制工作将继续与优先解决生活成本上涨的承诺保持一致。

“We maintain our consumer price index (CPI) forecast at 3.1% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023,” according to the research house.

“我们将2022年的消费者价格指数（CPI）预测维持在3.1%，2023年维持在3.2%，”该研究公司表示。

TA Research also predicted that Malaysia’s headline inflation would stay high at 3% y-o-y in 2023, following a rate of 3.1% this year.

TA Research还预测，马来西亚的整体通胀率将在今年3.1%之后，到2023年将保持在3%的高位。

However, the headline inflation for 2023 is still subject to policy changes in domestic subsidies and global commodity prices next year, it said.

 然而，它表示，2023年的总体通胀仍受明年国内补贴和全球大宗商品价格政策变化的影响。

 “Notable price pressures and tightening of monetary policy will likely dampen consumer spending.

“明显的价格压力和货币政策收紧可能会抑制消费者支出。

“Nonetheless, domestic demand will remain the key driver for growth next year, supported by the continued recovery in the labour market and improvement in local currency,” stated the research house.

“尽管如此，在劳动力市场持续复苏和当地货币改善的支持下，国内需求仍将是明年增长的主要驱动力，”该研究机构表示。

TA Research also added that the improvement of the ringgit at the end of November might have an impact on Malaysia’s inflationary pressure through moderate food import inflation.

TA Research还补充说，11月底令吉的改善可能会通过温和的食品进口通胀对马来西亚的通胀压力产生影响。

 The ringgit rebounded to trade below RM4.60 per US dollar since 13th November, thanks to improving sentiment resulting from the possible less aggressive approach by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming December meeting.

自11月13日以来，令吉反弹至每美元4.60令吉以下，这得益于美联储在即将举行的12月会议上可能采取不那么激进的做法导致市场情绪改善。

In addition, the ringgit continues to improve with the appointment of new Prime Minister, Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

此外，随着新总理拿督斯里Anwar Ibrahim的任命，令吉继续改善。

“We also believe that the slight downward trend in global commodity prices and a slowing of regional food inflation may lessen Malaysia’s inflation pressure.

“我们还认为，全球大宗商品价格的小幅下跌趋势和区域食品通胀放缓可能会减轻马来西亚的通胀压力。

 “As such, the headline inflation rate would increase at a more moderate pace in the fourth quarter of 2022 (4Q22), after it peaked by 4.5% y-o-y in 3Q22,” the research house said.

“因此，总体通胀率将在2022年第四季度（22年第四季度）以更温和的速度上升，此前它在22年第三季度达到4.5%的峰值，”该研究机构表示。

Meanwhile, AmBank Research noted that subsidies have kept the country’s inflation low.

与此同时，AmBank Research指出，补贴使该国的通货膨胀率保持在低位。

 “The CPI basket of goods and services in Malaysia is seen to be well below many other countries like the Philippines (7.7%), Thailand (6%), Indonesia (5.7%), and South Korea (5.7%).

“马来西亚的CPI商品和服务篮子被认为远低于菲律宾（7.7%），泰国（6%），印度尼西亚（5.7%）和韩国（5.7%）等许多其他国家。

“This is partly due to the Keluarga Malaysia government that has provided the biggest subsidy ever recorded in the history of the country,” it said.

“这部分是由于Keluarga Malaysia政府提供了该国历史上最大的补贴，”它说。

However, the research house cautioned that the underlying retail prices are “unlikely to come down”, even if the headline inflation eases.

然而，该研究公司警告说，即使整体通胀有所缓解，潜在的零售价格“也不太可能下降”。

AmBank Research urged the government to look at the structural issues that are leading towards the rising living costs which is hurting the pockets of the people.

AmBank Research敦促政府研究导致生活成本上升的结构性问题，这正在伤害人们的口袋。

“In doing so, we need to address the cost-push inflation driven by issues like labour and talent shortages, rent seeking, supply chain and other cost related issues.

 “在这样做的过程中，我们需要解决由劳动力和人才短缺、寻租、供应链和其他成本相关问题等问题驱动的成本推动型通货膨胀。

 “At the same time, we need to create more value-add jobs for the rakyat.

“与此同时，我们需要为人民创造更多的增值工作。

“This would help create and ensure sustainability of the people’s livelihood rather than merely focusing on assistance which is only temporary to them and a burden to the country’s balance sheet,” it said.

 “这将有助于创造和确保民生的可持续性，而不仅仅是关注对他们来说只是暂时的援助和国家资产负债表的负担，”它说。