RAM Ratings: No signs of recession in Malaysia, but global headwinds still test resilience

Malaysia is far off from recession risk, but domestic political impasse and global headwinds will continue to pose downside risk to the health of the economy.

马来西亚远离衰退风险，但国内政治僵局和全球阻力将继续对经济健康构成下行风险。

Economist Intelligence Corporate Network’s director for Southeast Asia Sumana Rajarethnam said that in Malaysia, where the latest election produced a hung Parliament, a fiscally and policy-wise responsible government will be critical for continued growth of the country and to boost investors confidence.

Economist Intelligence Corporate Network东南亚总监 Sumana Rajarethnam 表示，在马来西亚，最近的选举产生了悬浮议会，一个在财政和政策方面负责任的政府对于该国的持续增长和提振投资者信心至关重要。

“Our view is that policy making has actually been good since 2018, when the Pakatan [Harapan] government came to power. There is quite a lot of evidence of joint bills produced across the aisle by different parties.

“我们的观点是，自 2018 年希盟政府上台以来，政策制定实际上一直很好。有很多证据表明不同政党在过道上提出了联合法案。

“A lot of these bills have been socially progressive such as anti-smoking, voting rights, anti-party-hopping. Although not all of them were passed into law, it shows there has been a decent contribution in the spirit of policymaking,” he said at the Economic Outlook 2023: Choppy Waters Ahead? webinar organised by RAM Ratings.

他在由RAM Ratings举办的网络研讨会《2023年经济展望: 波涛汹涌的未来?》中表示 ：“很多这样的法案都是促进社会进步的，比如反吸烟、投票权、反跳党。尽管不是所有的建议都被通过成为法律，但它表明，在政策制定的精神方面做出了体面的贡献，”。

However, he said, the political uncertainty in Malaysia following the election has already been priced in by investors, and that extends a temporary buffer.

不过，他表示，马来西亚大选后的政治不确定性已经被投资者消化，这是一个临时的缓冲。

Additionally, Rajarethnam said Malaysia’s broad and diversified domestic economy will act as a defence to prop up and mitigate the impact of weaker exports until global macro factors improve.

此外，Rajarethnam表示，在全球宏观因素改善之前，马来西亚广泛而多元化的国内经济将起到支撑和减轻出口疲软影响的防御作用。

On the global front, he added the world economy will continue to face major headwinds in 2023, most notably from the fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, global monetary tightening and an economic slowdown in China.

在全球方面，他补充说，世界经济将在 2023 年继续面临重大阻力，最显着的是俄罗斯入侵乌克兰、全球货币紧缩和中国经济放缓的影响。

“The war is affecting the global economy via higher commodity prices,supply-chain disruptions and Russia's weaponisation of energy supplies. This situation will persist throughout 2023," Rajarethnam said.

“战争通过商品价格上涨、供应链中断和俄罗斯能源供应武器化影响了全球经济。这种情况将持续整个 2023 年，” Rajarethnam说。

Slower growth in 2023 

2023 年增长放缓

RAM Ratings' head of economic research Woon Khai Jhek said Malaysia’s stellar growth in 2022 should provide a sturdy base for growth in a challenging 2023, albeit a slower one.

RAM Ratings 的经济研究主管 Woon Khai Jhek 表示，马来西亚 2022 年的强劲增长应该为充满挑战的 2023 年的增长奠定坚实的基础，尽管增长速度会放缓。

While Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter grew by 14.2% year-on-year, RAM Ratings estimates full-year growth to reach 8.2%.

虽然马来西亚第三季度的国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长 14.2%，但 RAM Ratings 估计全年增长将达到 8.2%。

Woon added the research outfit projects Malaysia’s GDP growth to come in slower at 4% to 5% in 2023.

Woon 补充说，该研究机构预计 2023 年马来西亚的 GDP 增长将放缓至 4% 至 5%。

“Domestic demand will remain the key driver for growth next year, supported by the continued recovery in the labour market and existing policy support measures,” said Woon.

“在劳动力市场持续复苏和现有政策支持措施的支持下，国内需求仍将是明年增长的主要驱动力，”Woon 说。

That said, notable price pressures and tightening of monetary policy will likely dampen consumer spending.

尽管如此，显着的价格压力和货币政策收紧可能会抑制消费者支出。

He added headline inflation is anticipated to stay elevated at 2.7% in 2023 (inflation in 2022: 3.3%), although this is still subject to policy changes in domestic subsidies and global commodity prices next year.

他补充说，预计 2023 年总体通胀率将保持在 2.7% 的高位（2022 年通胀率：3.3%），尽管这仍取决于明年国内补贴和全球商品价格的政策变化。

RAM Ratings is expecting at least another 25-basis-point hike in the overnight policy rate (OPR) in 2023 to bring the policy rate back to the pre-pandemic level of 3%.

RAM Ratings 预计 2023 年隔夜政策利率 (OPR) 将至少再上调 25 个基点，以使政策利率回到大流行前的 3% 水平。

As of November 2022, Bank Negara Malaysia has announced a revised rate for the OPR, which now stands at 2.75%.

截至 2022 年 11 月，马来西亚中央银行宣布了 OPR 的修订利率，目前为 2.75%。

“Further escalation of geopolitical tensions, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages and political uncertainty on the domestic front could add pressure to 2023’s growth for the country.

“地缘政治紧张局势进一步升级、供应链中断、劳动力短缺和国内政治不确定性可能会给马来西亚 2023 年的增长带来压力。

“A faster-than-expected return of international travel and tourism are potential upsides to Malaysia’s growth,” said Woon.

“国际旅行和旅游业的恢复快于预期是马来西亚经济增长的潜在优势，”Woon 说。

RAM Ratings remains cautiously optimistic for the year ahead, with the Malaysian economy expected to continue on the path of recovery and recover lost ground incurred over the last two years.

RAM Ratings 对未来一年保持谨慎乐观，预计马来西亚经济将继续走上复苏之路，并收复过去两年的失地。