M'sian banks' loan growth to stay at 5-6% in 2023 on economic stability, says S&P Global

S&P Global Ratings expects the Malaysian banking sector's loan growth to stay at 5% to 6% in 2023, on the back of the country's economic stability, which will support the creditworthiness of Malaysian businesses and consumers.

标准普尔全球评级预计，在该国经济稳定的支持下，马来西亚银行业的贷款增长率将在 2023 年保持在 5% 至 6%，这将支持马来西亚企业和消费者的信誉。

Gross domestic product is forecast to grow at 6.6% in 2022, and an average of 4.5% over the next three years, it said.

预计 2022 年国内生产总值将增长 6.6%，未来三年平均增长 4.5%。

In S&P Global’s 2023 bank outlook commentaries released on 17th November, the research firm said that banks can also ride out rising asset quality risks, as solid capitalisation and provisioning buffers could offset asset quality pressure.

该研究公司在11 月 17 日发布的标普全球 2023 年银行展望评论中表示，银行也可以安然度过不断上升的资产质量风险，因为稳健的资本化和拨备缓冲可以抵消资产质量压力。

Malaysian banks' solid capitalisation at 14.3% common equity Tier 1 ratios as of 30th June, and provisioning buffers of 1.8% of total loans, will help them to absorb a moderate rise in credit stress, it said.

它表示，截至 6 月 30 日，马来西亚银行的普通股一级资本充足率为 14.3%，准备金缓冲占贷款总额的 1.8%，这将有助于它们吸收适度上升的信贷压力。

However, it noted that asset quality is expected to deteriorate, and the industry's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio will likely rise to 2.5% to 3% over the next two years, from 1.8% as of end-June, following the expiry of moratorium programmes.

然而，它指出，预计资产质量将恶化，该行业的不良贷款率 (NPL) 可能会在未来两年内从截至 6 月底的 1.8% 上升至 2.5% 至 3%。暂停计划。

'’Loans to low-income households and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) struggling to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic could be at risk. Higher inflation and interest rates are causing further pain. Banks' high provisioning buffers should also limit additional provisioning requirements despite rising NPLs.

“向努力从 Covid-19 大流行中恢复的低收入家庭和中小企业 (SME) 提供的贷款可能面临风险。更高的通货膨胀率和利率正在造成进一步的痛苦。尽管不良贷款增加，但银行的高准备金缓冲也应该会限制额外的准备金要求。

"Meanwhile, credit cost will decline to 30 to 40 basis points, but stay higher than pre-pandemic levels, as banks are likely to stay cautious amid global headwinds," it said.

“与此同时，信贷成本将下降至 30 至 40 个基点，但仍高于大流行前的水平，因为银行可能会在全球逆风中保持谨慎，”它表示。

However, it said banks' earnings could edge closer to pre-pandemic levels starting in 2023, with higher margins, moderating credit cost and a normalised tax rate driving the improvement.

然而，它表示，从 2023 年开始，银行的盈利可能会逐渐接近大流行前的水平，利润率提高、信贷成本下降和正常化税率推动了这一改善。

"In our base-case [scenario], we forecast a return on average assets of 1.3% to 1.4%, compared with 1.1% to 1.2% estimated for 2022," it noted.

“在我们的基本情况 [情景] 中，我们预测平均资产回报率为 1.3% 至 1.4%，而 2022 年估计为 1.1% 至 1.2%，”它指出。

S&P Global also highlighted that property market risks should stay contained, although oversupply issues in the real estate market remain a structural challenge.

标准普尔全球还强调，尽管房地产市场的供过于求问题仍然是结构性挑战，但房地产市场风险应得到控制。

"Nonetheless, modest growth in property prices in recent years, banks' prudent loan-to-value ratios, and cautious lending to the commercial segment limit risk from this sector," it said.

“尽管如此，近年来房地产价格的温和增长、银行审慎的贷款价值比以及对商业部门的谨慎贷款限制了该行业的风险，”它表示。

Moving forward, it said over the next year, higher inflation and interest rates could dampen credit demand, and increase default risks for some low-income consumers and SMEs.

展望未来，它表示，明年更高的通胀和利率可能会抑制信贷需求，并增加一些低收入消费者和中小企业的违约风险。

"We view these risks as manageable. Although it is not our base case, a sharp rise in unemployment could also increase asset quality risks for the banking sector.

“我们认为这些风险是可控的。虽然这不是我们的基本情况，但失业率急剧上升也可能增加银行业的资产质量风险。

"Some new digital banks could launch operations in 2023. While we believe large banks will retain their market share, it will be interesting to see how their business models evolve in response to the digital competition," it said.

“一些新的数字银行可能会在 2023 年开始运营。虽然我们相信大型银行将保留其市场份额，但有趣的是看看他们的商业模式如何演变以应对数字竞争，”它说。

Taking a bird’s-eye view of the global banking sector, it said 2023 will be more difficult for the banking sector. While the vast majority of bank ratings are stable, S&P Global anticipates the significant buffers that banks have built up over the past 10 years to be tested.

纵观全球银行业，2023年银行业将更加艰难。虽然绝大多数银行评级是稳定的，但标普全球预计银行在过去 10 年中建立的重要缓冲将受到考验。

Net interest margins are fattening in many jurisdictions on the back of higher interest rates. This boost, along with still-sound asset quality and robust capitalisation, continues to underpin the overall stable view across the global banking sector.

在利率上升的支持下，许多司法管辖区的净息差正在扩大。这种提振，加上仍然良好的资产质量和稳健的资本，继续支撑着全球银行业的整体稳定观点。

Another help is strong deposit bases buoyed by excess savings coming out of the pandemic, it said.

它说，另一个帮助是强大的存款基础受到大流行带来的过剩储蓄的提振。

It also highlighted that inflation is at 40-year highs in some banking jurisdictions, and this is feeding into higher borrowing costs. Inflation is also putting the brakes on the outlook for economic growth.

它还强调，一些银行辖区的通货膨胀率处于 40 年来的高位，这正在推高借贷成本。通货膨胀也阻碍了经济增长的前景。

The equation for banks could change on materially higher-for-longer inflation outside S&P Global’s current base case, or a deeper or longer recession resulting in a sharper-than-anticipated contraction in growth and higher unemployment, it said.

它表示，银行的等式可能会因标准普尔全球当前基本情况之外的长期通胀大幅上涨，或更深或更长时间的衰退导致增长收缩和失业率高于预期而发生变化。

"A key risk to bank ratings is the emergence of harsher economic and financing conditions than our base case. Additional key risks are potentially higher corporate insolvencies exacerbated by high corporate leverage, high government leverage, and weaker property sectors.

“银行评级的一个主要风险是出现比我们的基本情况更严酷的经济和融资条件。其他主要风险是企业杠杆率高、政府杠杆率高和房地产行业疲软可能加剧企业破产。

"We anticipate increasing credit divergence between the strong and weak. Challenges may be more acute and swift for non-bank financial institutions, and certain emerging-market banks. Entities in countries most exposed to energy restrictions may also be challenged," it added.

“我们预计强弱之间的信贷分歧会越来越大。对于非银行金融机构和某些新兴市场银行来说，挑战可能更加严峻和迅速。最容易受到能源限制的国家的实体也可能受到挑战，”它补充说。