​​​​​​​Malaysian firms to see moderate 3Q earnings amid unabated economic headwinds

With the 3Q corporate earnings reporting season kicking off, investors are wondering which sector will wrap the year big.

随着第三季度企业财报季的拉开帷幕，投资者想知道哪个行业将成为今年的收官之作。

Analysts The Edge spoke to said a slew of major global events are still weighing on these companies’ performance for the rest of the year. These include high inflation and interest rates, moderating commodity prices, global energy crisis, Covid-19-induced supply chain disruptions and strong US dollar.

The Edge采访的分析师表示，一系列重大全球事件仍在影响这些公司今年余下时间的业绩。其中包括高通胀和高利率、商品价格放缓、全球能源危机、Covid-19 引发的供应链中断以及美元走强。

Let’s take a look at what investors could anticipate for companies from these five key sectors.

让我们来看看投资者对这五个关键行业的公司有何期待。

Mixed outlook for O&G service providers, as more upstream players pivot to alternate energy

随着越来越多的上游参与者转向替代能源，油气服务提供商的前景喜忧参半

Despite high crude oil prices remaining at above US$90 per barrel, not all local oil and gas (O&G) companies will make significant jumps in their core earnings, said Areca Capital Sdn Bhd’s CEO Danny Wong.

Areca Capital Sdn Bhd 的首席执行官 Danny Wong 表示，尽管原油价格仍维持在每桶 90 美元以上，但并非所有本地石油和天然气 (O&G) 公司的核心收益都会大幅增长。

This is because of the long-term risk of bigger upstream players pivoting away from fossil fuels to alternative energy to limit carbon emissions, likely resulting in fewer long-term contracts for service providers.

这是因为更大的上游参与者从化石燃料转向替代能源以限制碳排放的长期风险，可能导致服务提供商的长期合同减少。

“As there is more scrutiny of ESG standards on oil production, O&G service providers may face challenges if producers do not increase production or capital expenditure (capex) in new exploration activities. They may spend more capex on cleaner energy. For this reason, I do not see service providers growing for the upcoming quarter,” said Wong.

“随着对石油生产的 ESG 标准进行更多审查，如果生产商不在新的勘探活动中增加产量或资本支出 (capex)，O&G 服务提供商可能会面临挑战。他们可能会在更清洁的能源上花费更多的资本支出。出于这个原因，我认为服务提供商在下个季度不会增长，”Wong 说。

However, TA Securities’ analyst Kylie Chan Sze Zan remains positive on the prospects of upstream service providers being leveraged towards steady O&G capex momentum.

然而，达证券分析师 Kylie Chan Sze Zan 仍然看好上游服务提供商利用稳定的 O&G 资本支出势头的前景。

“We expect a recovery in daily charter rates, fleet utilisation and new contract awards. The catalyst is higher capex spend from Petronas and other oil companies in these areas: expansion projects, well drilling, production enhancement, and platform and facilities maintenance,” she said in an 17th October research note.

“我们预计日租费率、船队利用率和新合同授予将有所回升。催化剂是国油和其他石油公司在这些领域的资本支出增加：扩建项目、钻井、增产以及平台和设施维护，”她在 10 月 17 日的一份研究报告中说。

For perspective, Petronas’ 1H22 capex spending surged 49% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM18.9 billion, which reflects a recovery back to pre-Covid spending levels. The oil major expects domestic activities to heighten in the upcoming quarters.

从长远来看，国油的 1H22 资本支出同比飙升 49% 至 189 亿令吉，反映出已恢复至疫情前的支出水平。这家石油巨头预计未来几个季度国内活动将会增加。

Plantation headed for a weak quarter on low CPO prices and high costs

由于低 CPO 价格和高成本，种植园走向疲软的季度

The plantation sector was the darling among investors when crude palm oil (CPO) prices touched the RM7,000 range earlier this year. But not all good times are meant to last, as prices have tapered off since. Analysts are now less positive on this sector.

当毛棕油（CPO）价格在今年早些时候触及 7,000 令吉区间时，种植业是投资者的宠儿。但并非所有的好时光都会持续下去，因为此后价格逐渐下降。分析师现在对该行业的看法不那么乐观。

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research’s Chye Wen Fe said plantation earnings will be affected by lower CPO prices and fresh fruit bunch (FFB), as well as higher costs of production.

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research 的 Chye Wen Fe 表示，种植园收益将受到原棕油价格和新鲜果串 (FFB) 下降以及生产成本上升的影响。

“Most planters will likely post a y-o-y decline in their upstream plantation earnings, on the back of higher production costs arising mainly from the full impact of minimum wage hike in Malaysia and higher fertiliser prices,” said Chye in a research note on 16th November.

Chye 在 11 月 16 日的一份研究报告中表示：“由于马来西亚最低工资上调和化肥价格上涨的全面影响导致生产成本上升，大多数种植者的上游种植园收入可能会同比下降。”

Malaysia imposed a minimum wage of RM1,500 per month effective 1st May this year.

马来西亚从今年 5 月 1 日起实施每月 1500 令吉的最低工资。

Chye added that planters with high exposure to upstream operations in Indonesia will likely fare better than those that have high exposure in Malaysia, given the change in export levy structure and possibly higher FFB output.

Chye 补充说，考虑到出口征税结构的变化和可能更高的鲜果束产量，在印尼上游业务有较高风险的种植者可能会比在马来西亚有较高风险的种植者表现更好。

“As for the integrated players, volatile feedstock prices, coupled with elevated freight cost, will likely hinder profitability at the downstream segment.”

“对于综合企业而言，原料价格波动，加上运费上涨，可能会阻碍下游领域的盈利能力。”

Indonesia’s palm oil export tax of US$33/tonne (RM151/tonne) for 1st-15th October 2022 was lower than Malaysia’s RM322/tonne. This has made Indonesian palm oil more competitive till at least end-October, putting Malaysian planters at an unfavourable position, said CGS-CIMB Securities’ Ivy Ng Lee Fang and Nagulan Ravi.

2022 年 10 月 1 日至 15 日，印度尼西亚的棕榈油出口税为 33 美元/吨（151 令吉/吨），低于马来西亚的 322 令吉/吨。CGS-CIMB Securities 的 Ivy Ng Lee Fang 和 Nagulan Ravi 表示，这使得印度尼西亚棕榈油至少在 10 月底之前更具竞争力，使马来西亚种植者处于不利地位。

“We project palm oil stocks to rise 8.2% month-on-month to 2.5 million tonnes by the end of October, as higher output trump higher exports,” the analysts said in a note.

“我们预计到 10 月底棕榈油库存将环比增加 8.2% 至 250 万吨，因为产量增加胜过出口增加，”分析师在一份报告中表示。

4-5% y-o-y core net profit growth for banking sector on NIM and loan expansion

由于净息差和贷款扩张，银行业核心净利润同比增长 4-5%

CGS-CIMB’s analyst Winson Ng foresees three major positive trends for banks in the 3Q22 results announcement. Banks are expected to expand net interest margin (NIM) by 6-8 basis points, post robust loan growth of above 6% at end-September 2022, and register a decline of 40% y-o-y in loan loss provisioning.

CGS-CIMB 的分析师 Winson Ng 在 22 年第三季度的业绩公告中预见了银行的三大积极趋势。预计银行将净息差 (NIM) 扩大 6-8 个基点，到 2022 年 9 月底贷款将强劲增长 6% 以上，贷款损失准备金同比下降 40%。

On the flip side, he expects lethargic 3Q22 non-interest income, which likely to be flattish or even lower y-o-y and quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) (excluding the one-off gain of RM1.022 billion by Affin Bank for the divestment of its stake in Affin Hwang Asset Management).

另一方面，他预计 2022 年第 3 季度非利息收入将保持低迷，同比和环比可能持平甚至更低（不包括Affin Bank因撤资而获得的 10.22 亿令吉的一次性收益）其在 Affin Hwang Asset Management 的股份）。

“A wider increase of around 5% y-o-y in 3Q22 overheads versus a rise of 3.2% y-o-y in 2Q22, and a q-o-q increase in gross impaired loan ratio. Most of the above trends are reflected in our assumptions, barring potentially weaker-than-expected non-interest income,” he added.

“与 2022 年第 2 季度同比增长 3.2% 相比，22 年第 3 季度间接费用同比增长约 5%，总减值贷款比率环比上升。上述大部分趋势都反映在我们的假设中，除非非利息收入可能低于预期，”他补充道。

However, Ng said this could be partly offset by stronger net interest income growth from robust loan momentum.

然而，Ng 表示，这可能会被强劲的贷款势头带来的更强劲的净利息收入增长部分抵消。

The research outfit estimates a total core net profit of RM7.1 billion to RM7.2 billion for the banking sector in 3Q22 (excluding Affin Bank’s one-off divestment gain), versus RM6.84 billion in 3Q21 and RM7 billion in 2Q22.

该研究机构估计，22 年第 3 季度银行业的核心净利润总额为 71 亿至 72 亿令吉（不包括艾芬银行的一次性撤资收益），而 2021 年第 3 季度和第 2 季度分别为 68.4 亿令吉和 70 亿令吉。

“This represents core net profit growth of 4-5% y-o-y (1-3% quarter-on-quarter/q-o-q) in 3Q22. We reiterate our ‘overweight’ call on banks, predicated on the potential re-rating catalysts of expansion in NIM amidst the OPR (overnight policy rate) upcycle, and robust loan growth. Our picks for the sector are RHB Bank Bhd, Hong Leong Bank Bhd and Public Bank Bhd,” he added.

“这代表 22 年第三季度核心净利润同比增长 4-5%（环比增长 1-3%）。我们重申对银行的“增持”评级，基于 OPR（隔夜政策利率）上行周期中 NIM 扩张的潜在重新评级催化剂和强劲的贷款增长。

我们对该行业的选择是 RHB Bank Bhd、Hong Leong Bank Bhd 和 Public Bank Bhd。”

Semiconductor to remain flat on cost pressure and low demand

半导体因成本压力和需求低迷而保持平稳

Technology and semiconductor-related companies are expected to slow down in 3Q22 in terms of financial performance, as the sector is undergoing inventory adjustment and responding to higher inflation situation, said Ronnie Tan of Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd.

Mercury Securities Sdn Bhd 的 Ronnie Tan 表示，由于该行业正在进行库存调整和应对更高的通胀形势，预计科技和半导体相关公司的财务业绩将在 22 年第三季度放缓。

“After the surge in demand for outsourced semiconductor assembly and test (OSAT) services and semiconductor equipment in the last two years, I think the industry is slowing down due to rising interest rates and high inflation, which impacts consumer purchasing power,” he told The Edge.

“在过去两年对外包半导体封装和测试（OSAT）服务和半导体设备的需求激增之后，我认为由于利率上升和高通胀影响了消费者的购买力，该行业正在放缓，”他告诉边缘。

Global smartphone shipments fell 9.7% y-o-y to 302 million units in 3Q this year, according to International Data Corporation (IDC) data.

根据国际数据公司 (IDC) 的数据，今年第三季度全球智能手机出货量同比下降 9.7% 至 3.02 亿部。

“Bear in mind that interest rate hikes in some countries such as the US may compress the valuation of the semiconductor industry. As a matter of fact, Malaysia’s semiconductor and tech valuation is very high compared to some of the other peers in other countries,” said Tan.

“请记住，美国等一些国家的加息可能会压缩半导体行业的估值。事实上，与其他国家的一些同行相比，马来西亚的半导体和科技估值非常高，”Tan 说。

Having said that, he is of the view that there is still light at the end of the tunnel for semiconductor segments that continue to benefit from the mass adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).

话虽如此，他认为，对于继续受益于电动汽车 (EV) 的大规模采用的半导体领域，隧道尽头仍有曙光。

Meanwhile, PublicInvest Research in a note on 25th October said the semiconductor industry is grappling with export restrictions from the US government, which is ratcheting up pressure on its allies to prevent shipment of cutting-edge chips to a growing list of Chinese companies.

与此同时，PublicInvest Research 在 10 月 25 日的一份报告中表示，半导体行业正在努力应对美国政府的出口限制，美国政府正在加大对其盟友的压力，以阻止向越来越多的中国公司运送尖端芯片。

However, Malaysia is likely to capture the spillover effects in terms of the relocation of industries from China and the US to this region, in order to minimise future risks arising from increased US-China tensions.

然而，马来西亚可能会抓住中国和美国产业向该地区转移的溢出效应，以尽量减少美中紧张局势加剧带来的未来风险。

“Malaysia is among the leading countries in terms of investments [in] the semiconductor, telecommunications and technology industries, as it has a favourable ecosystem, including talent, infrastructure and a business-friendly environment,” the research outfit added.

“在半导体、电信和科技行业的投资方面，马来西亚是领先国家之一，因为它拥有良好的生态系统，包括人才、基础设施和商业友好的环境，”该研究机构补充说。

Property earnings still impacted by weak buyer sentiment

房地产收益仍受到疲弱买家情绪的影响

The property overhang issue, coupled with interest rate upcycle and rising inflation, have dented buyer sentiment, said Areca’s Wong, adding that such weak sentiment could impinge on core profit growth for property players.

Areca 的 Wong 表示，房地产过剩问题，加上利率上升周期和通胀上升，削弱了买家的情绪，并补充说这种疲软的情绪可能会影响房地产参与者的核心利润增长。

“Outlook for this sector looks challenging on the back of rising interest rates, which is not positive news for property loan applications. Although the last OPR (overnight policy rate) hike may not have been reflected in 3Q earnings, the previous interest rate increases have hindered buyers,” he added.

“在利率上升的背景下，该行业的前景看起来充满挑战，这对房地产贷款申请来说不是利好消息。尽管上一次 OPR（隔夜政策利率）上调可能没有反映在第三季度的收益中，但之前的加息阻碍了买家，”他补充道。

Real Estate Investment Trusts (M-REITs) growth also looks moderate on the back of oversupply of office spaces, as the pandemic diminished demand for such spaces.

在办公空间供过于求的背景下，房地产投资信托基金 (M-REITs) 的增长看起来也很温和，因为大流行病减少了对此类空间的需求。

According to research by real estate agency Knight Frank, the cumulative supply of retail space in Klang Valley is expected to increase from 68.4m sq ft in 2022 to 71.9m sq ft in 2023, and 73.7m in 2024. Some of the notable new malls that are expected to open in 2023 are The Exchange TRX (1.3m sq ft) and 118 Mall (850k sq ft).

根据房地产经纪公司 Knight Frank 的研究，巴生谷零售空间的累计供应量预计将从 2022 年的 6840 万平方英尺增加到 2023 年的 7190 万平方英尺，以及 2024 年的 7370 万平方英尺。一些著名的新购物中心预计将于 2023 年开业的是 The Exchange TRX（130 万平方英尺）和 118 购物中心（85 万平方英尺）。

“With the risk of an economic slowdown, this will further compound the downward pressure on rental reversion and occupancy rates,” said analyst Loong Kok Wen from RHB Investment Bank Bhd in a note on 7th November.

兴业投资银行分析师龙国文在 11 月 7 日的一份报告中表示：“由于经济放缓的风险，这将进一步加剧租金上调和入住率的下行压力。”

She added that despite the negative outlook, retail REITs have shown to be resilient in surviving the pandemic.

她补充说，尽管前景不佳，但零售房地产投资信托基金已显示出在大流行中幸存下来的弹性。

“While growth may be limited, good management by REITs and the strength of key malls should ensure stability,” she said.

“虽然增长可能有限，但房地产投资信托基金的良好管理和主要购物中心的实力应能确保稳定，”她说。