MIDF sees another 25-basis-point OPR hike in November after strong core CPI showing

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is likely to raise the overnight policy rate (OPR) by another 25 basis points in November following the strong core consumer price index (CPI) recorded for September, according to MIDF Research.

根据 MIDF Research 的数据，继 9 月份录得强劲的核心消费者价格指数（CPI）之后，马来西亚中央银行（BNM）可能会在 11 月份将隔夜政策利率（OPR）再提高 25 个基点。

The research house said domestic demand has continued strengthening as the core inflation rate touched a new peak point again at 4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2022 while core prices still grew 0.3% month-on-month.

该研究机构表示，随着核心通胀率在 2022 年 9 月再次触及同比 4% 的新高点，而核心价格仍环比增长 0.3%，国内需求继续增强。

However, the headline inflation softened slightly to 4.5% y-o-y while non-food inflation eased to 3.3% and food inflation eased to 6.8%.

然而，整体通胀同比小幅回落至 4.5%，而非食品通胀回落至 3.3%，而食品通胀回落至 6.8%。

MIDF Research sees the inflationary pressure in Malaysia moderating after August 2022, especially with the slight correction in global commodity prices and the easing of supply chain pressures domestically and regionally. It is bumping up slightly its headline CPI forecast to 3% for 2022.

MIDF Research 认为，马来西亚的通胀压力在 2022 年 8 月之后会有所缓和，尤其是随着全球大宗商品价格的小幅回调以及国内和地区供应链压力的缓解。它将 2022 年的总体 CPI 预测小幅上调至 3%。

"In the environment of elevated global commodity prices, inflationary pressure in Malaysia is affected via higher food inflation.

“在全球大宗商品价格上涨的环境下，马来西亚的通胀压力受到食品通胀上升的影响。

"We expect food prices to rise 5.5% this year, due to, among others, the further depreciation of the ringgit against the US dollar," it said.

“我们预计今年食品价格将上涨5.5%，其中包括令吉兑美元进一步贬值，”它说。

Moving into 2023, MIDF Research said supply push factors on inflation are expected to soften, underpinned by the appreciation of the ringgit versus the greenback, moderation in food prices, further easing in global supply chains, and lower commodity prices.

MIDF Research 表示，进入 2023 年，供应推动通胀的因素预计将减弱，这得益于令吉兑美元升值、食品价格放缓、全球供应链进一步放松以及大宗商品价格下跌。

However, Malaysia's inflation outlook remains cloudy for next year, awaiting the new government's approach to the fuel subsidy mechanism post-general election.

然而，马来西亚明年的通胀前景仍然阴云密布，等待新政府在大选后对燃料补贴机制采取的方法。

"If the new government keeps the status quo on the fuel subsidy, the headline inflation would hover between 2.3% and 2.5% for 2023.

“如果新政府维持燃油补贴现状，2023年整体通胀率将徘徊在2.3%至2.5%之间。

"If the subsidy mechanism is abolished entirely, headline inflation could touch 10% while domestic retail fuel prices would see a 4% to 5% rise next year," it added.

“如果补贴机制被完全取消，总体通胀率可能达到10%，而明年国内零售燃料价格将上涨4%至5%，”它补充道。