Asean labour migration set to recover, possibly surpass pre-pandemic levels

Labour migration is expected to recover and possibly surpass pre-pandemic levels due to the expected strength of economic recovery in Asean member states, says the Asean Secretariat (ASEC).

东盟秘书处（ASEC）表示，由于东盟成员国经济复苏的预期强度，劳动力移民预计将恢复并可能超过大流行前的水平。

Other reasons include the continuing wide disparity in socio-economic wellbeing between origin and destination countries, demographic pressures, and sectoral or role-based gaps in the labour markets.

其他原因包括原籍国和目的地国之间在社会经济福祉方面持续存在的巨大差异、人口压力以及劳动力市场中的部门或基于角色的差距。

In its first edition of its “Asean Migration Outlook” publication, ASEC said the economic fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in large job losses, massive migrant worker returns, and a sharp drop in deployment over the past two years.

ASEC 在其第一版“东盟移民展望”出版物中表示，Covid-19 大流行的经济影响导致过去两年大量失业、大量移民工人返回以及部署急剧下降。

The Outlook was coordinated by ASEC and was supported by the Australian Government through the Asia Foundation.

该展望由 ASEC 协调，并得到澳大利亚政府通过亚洲基金会的支持。

However, the region is projected to return to pre-pandemic growth levels or close to it, beginning 2022 and achieve the pre-pandemic levels of output by 2022 or 2023 after the economic meltdown in 2020 and tepid growth in 2021.

然而，预计该地区将从 2022 年开始恢复到或接近大流行前的增长水平，并在 2020 年经济崩溃和 2021 年不温不火的增长后，到 2022 年或 2023 年达到大流行前的产出水平。

ASEC pointed out that the World Bank and International Monetary Fund forecast Malaysia’s economy to grow by 5.7%-5.8% in 2022, and by 4.5%-5.7% in 2023.

ASEC指出，世界银行和国际货币基金组织预测马来西亚经济2022年将增长5.7%-5.8%，2023年增长4.5%-5.7%。

Hence, strong growth in Malaysia is expected in sectors that are heavily reliant on migrant labour.

因此，在严重依赖移民劳工的领域，预计马来西亚将出现强劲增长。

For instance, the construction sector is expected to grow by 11.5% in 2022, manufacturing by 4.7%, agriculture by 3.9%, wholesale and retail trade by 8.7%, food and beverages and accommodation by 7.3%, and other services by 6.1%.

例如，预计 2022 年建筑业增长 11.5%，制造业增长 4.7%，农业增长 3.9%，批发和零售贸易增长 8.7%，餐饮和住宿增长 7.3%，其他服务业增长 6.1%。

In 2019, these sectors already accounted for about 80% of total migrant workers in Malaysia.

2019 年，这些行业已占马来西亚移民工人总数的 80% 左右。

According to ASEC, besides Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar to Thailand, Indonesia to Malaysia is also one of the main migration corridors in terms of physical distance and shared culture, language, and history.

据 ASEC 称，除了柬埔寨、老挝和缅甸到泰国，印度尼西亚到马来西亚也是物理距离和共享文化、语言和历史的主要移民走廊之一。

Migration to Malaysia will continue to be economically attractive for Indonesian workers in the foreseeable future, with Indonesia’s per capita gross domestic product hovering around a third of Malaysia’s over the past 30 years, it noted.

它指出，在可预见的未来，移民到马来西亚将继续对印度尼西亚工人具有经济吸引力，印度尼西亚的人均国内生产总值在过去 30 年中徘徊在马来西亚的三分之一左右。