Analysts say world recession risks derailing Malaysia’s recovery, but growth still likely

The risk of recession in three of the world’s largest economies could threaten Malaysia’s post-pandemic recovery but not enough to drag growth down, according to three local analysts polled by Malay Mail.

据《马来邮报》调查的三位当地分析师称，世界上三个最大经济体的衰退风险可能会威胁到马来西亚在大流行后的复苏，但不足以拖累增长。

The impending interest rate increase in the United States, energy supply disruption in the European Union and lockdowns in China have prompted warnings about a potential global slowdown, with implications for export-reliant emerging economies.

美国即将加息、欧盟能源供应中断以及中国的封锁引发了对全球潜在放缓的警告，这对依赖出口的新兴经济体产生了影响。

The US and Chinese markets account for close to a third of Malaysia’s total exports. Nazmi Idrus, head of economics research department at CGS-CIMB Securities, said the chances of the US plunging into recession is more than likely, citing data that points to contraction in the first quarter.

美国和中国市场占马来西亚总出口的近三分之一。 CGS-CIMB Securities 经济研究部门负责人 Nazmi Idrus 表示，美国很有可能陷入衰退，并引用数据显示第一季度经济萎缩。

Meanwhile, pundits have slashed China’s growth to just 5.0% on the back of strict Covid-19 curbs, slowing down demand for exports from the world’s second largest economy. China is Malaysia’s largest export destination to date.

与此同时，由于严格的 Covid-19 限制措施，权威人士将中国的增长率下调至仅5.0%，减缓了世界第二大经济体对出口的需求。中国是马来西亚迄今为止最大的出口目的地。

“If anything, we could already be getting in one already. The US gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2022 annualised is already negative, and another quarter of negative growth would mean a technical recession,” he said.

“如果有的话，我们可能已经加入其中了。美国 2022 年第一季度的国内生产总值年化率已经为负数，再出现一个季度的负增长将意味着技术性衰退，”他说。

“By definition, a technical recession is when there are two quarters of consecutive GDP decline.”

“根据定义，技术性衰退是指国内生产总值连续两个季度下降。”

Weak growth in the two countries would dampen Malaysia’s exports, Nazmi noted, but with the spillover effect likely to be contained as Putrajaya and the Central Bank have relatively managed to keep inflation under control.

Nazmi 指出，这两个国家的疲软增长将抑制马来西亚的出口，但由于布城和中央银行相对设法控制通胀，溢出效应可能会得到控制。

“This has kept the erosion of consumer purchasing power minimal, relative to other countries,” he said.

“与其他国家相比，这使得消费者购买力的侵蚀最小化，”他说。

Afiq Asyraf Syazwan Abdul Rahim, Kenanga Investment Bank economist, said Malaysia may not fall into a recession yet, but warned that a global recession, possibly in 2024, could have ripple effects on the domestic economy.

Kenanga 投资银行经济学家 Afiq Asyraf Syazwan Abdul Rahim 表示，马来西亚可能尚未陷入衰退，但警告说，可能在 2024 年发生的全球衰退可能会对国内经济产生连锁反应。

“As an export-dependent country, reduced demand from Malaysia’s key trading partners (i.e. China, Singapore, US) due to increasing inflationary pressure and rising-rate environment may derail domestic economic recovery,” he told Malay Mail.

“作为一个依赖出口的国家，由于通胀压力增加和利率上升的环境，马来西亚主要贸易伙伴（即中国、新加坡、美国）的需求减少可能会破坏国内经济复苏，”他告诉《马来邮报》。

“Consequently, (this may) lead to an increase in the unemployment rate, further decreasing Malaysians’ purchasing power.”

“因此，（这可能）导致失业率上升，进一步降低马来西亚人的购买力。

MARC Ratings Bhd noted last month that Malaysia’s pace of recovery is already relatively slow despite a significantly larger fiscal size seen in the post-2008 Global Financial Crisis.

MARC Ratings Bhd 上个月指出，尽管在 2008 年后的全球金融危机中财政规模显着扩大，但马来西亚的复苏步伐已经相对缓慢。

The probability of a US recession in the next year may be as high as 35%, Bloomberg reported last month citing economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc, who cut the bank’s growth forecasts due to the soaring oil prices and the fallout from the war in Ukraine.

彭博社上个月援引高盛集团经济学家的话说，明年美国经济衰退的可能性可能高达 35%，由于油价飙升和乌克兰战争的影响，谁下调了银行的增长预测。

Bank of America Corp was quoted in the same report as saying that the risk of an economic downturn is low for now, but higher next year.

同一份报告中援引美国银行的话说，目前经济下滑的风险很低，但明年会更高。

Meanwhile, European stocks value have tumbled as investors began shedding Old World equities, the most exposed to the Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Malaysia’s trade value with the Eurozone rose to RM79.94 billion or a 26.66% increase in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period last year, making the EU a crucial market.

与此同时，随着投资者开始抛售旧世界股票，欧洲股市价值暴跌，旧世界股票是最容易受到乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突影响的股票。与去年同期相比，马来西亚与欧元区的贸易额在 2021 年上半年增至 799.4 亿令吉或 26.66%，使欧盟成为重要市场。

Afiq Asyraf said Malaysia could be in a “recessionary gap” and eventually slide into contraction if China continues to pursue its strict Covid-19 policy, a prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and the Federal Reserve hiking rates above the neutral threshold.

Afiq Asyraf 表示，如果中国继续奉行严格的 Covid-19 政策、长期的俄乌战争以及美联储将利率提高到中性门槛以上，马来西亚可能处于“衰退期”并最终陷入收缩。

Still, the probability of that happening is “relatively low”, he added.

不过，他补充说，这种情况发生的可能性“相对较低”。

Julia Goh Mei Ling, analyst at UOB Bank, said Malaysian businesses will need to adapt to prolonged periods of higher commodity prices and cost drivers including the weaker ringgit, even as the prospect of a global recession remains relatively far.

大华银行分析师 Julia Goh Mei Ling 表示，即使全球经济衰退的前景仍然相对遥远，马来西亚企业仍需要适应商品价格长期上涨和包括令吉走弱在内的成本驱动因素。

“Based on several signposts and indicators monitored, a global recession is not expected for at least over the next six to twelve months,” she said.

“根据监测的几个迹象和指标，预计至少在未来六到十二个月内不会出现全球衰退，”她说。

“Key risk is how the global economy navigates through higher inflation and interest rates while liquidity conditions tighten. Lingering risks to supply chains and delivery times also need to be factored in.”

“主要风险是在流动性收紧的情况下，全球经济如何度过更高的通胀和利率。供应链和交付时间的挥之不去的风险也需要考虑在内。”

Exporters have enjoyed strong demand owing to post-pandemic recovery so far but that may gradually subside based on a baseline assumption of the slowdown that may hit global trade in the future, Nazmi said.

Nazmi 表示，迄今为止，由于大流行后的复苏，出口商的需求强劲，但基于对未来可能影响全球贸易的放缓的基线假设，这种需求可能会逐渐消退。

“But on a worst case assumption, the reduction in global demand is sharper, and exporters may face lower than normal growth... recovery efforts will continue but at a lower pace in my opinion.”

“但在最坏的情况下，全球需求下降幅度更大，出口商可能面临低于正常水平的增长……复苏努力将继续，但在我看来，步伐会放缓。”