Govt may end up leaning on Petronas to help plug fuel subsidy bill, says OCBC economist

As the government expects fuel subsidies to top RM28 billion in 2022 due to the rising world crude oil prices, an OCBC Bank economist reckons that it may end up leaning on state-owned oil and gas (O&G) company Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) for special dividends to help plug the subsidy bill.

由于政府预计，由于世界原油价格上涨，2022年燃料补贴将超过280亿令吉，华侨银行的一位经济学家估计，它最终可能会依靠国有石油和天然气（O&G）公司Petroliam Nasional Bhd（Petronas）获得特别股息，以帮助填补补贴账单。

Wellian Wiranto said the move would also help keep the broader fiscal deficit at around the targeted 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) as first budgeted in Budget 2022.

Wellian Wiranto表示，此举还将有助于将更广泛的财政赤字保持在2022年预算中首次预算的国内生产总值（GDP）的6%左右的目标。

On 10th March, Finance Minister Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz told Parliament that if the world's crude oil price remains above US$100 (RM419.45) per barrel, total subsidies for the whole of 2022 are expected to reach RM28 billion compared with RM11 billion for 2021.

3月10日，财政部长Tengku Datuk Seri Zafrul Tengku Abdul Aziz告诉议会，如果世界原油价格保持在每桶100美元（419.45令吉）以上，预计2022年全年的补贴总额将达到280亿令吉，而2021年为110亿令吉。

He also said the government will review the fuel and cooking oil subsidy mechanism so that it will be more targeted towards aiding and subsidising vulnerable groups and those who really need help.

他还表示，政府将审查燃料和食用油补贴机制，以便更针对性地帮助和补贴弱势群体和真正需要帮助的人。

“Having access to the Petronas pot would be especially important, given that it remains unclear how the targeted subsidy scheme would work in practice,” Wellian said in a note on Friday.

"获得Petronas锅将特别重要，因为目前尚不清楚有针对性的补贴计划在实践中将如何运作，"Wellian在周五的一份报告中表示。

However, he noted that given the large gap between real and subsidised prices, for instance the RON95 fuel sells at RM2.05 a litre although it costs 80% higher at RM3.70 a litre, potential leakages from some “creative” transactions cannot be dismissed.

然而，他指出，鉴于实际价格和补贴价格之间的巨大差距，例如 RON95 燃料的售价为每升 2.05 令吉，尽管它的成本高出 80% ，为每升 3.70 令吉，但一些创造易的潜在泄漏不能被忽视。

On the surge in crude oil prices, Wellian said although it benefits the trade balance and fiscal revenues for Malaysia, the net O&G producer will have to choose between a rise in fiscal expenditure if it keeps the fuel subsidy, and an inflationary wave if it does not.

关于原油价格的飙升，Wellian表示，尽管它有利于马来西亚的贸易平衡和财政收入，但净O&G生产商将不得不在财政支出增加（如果保持燃料补贴）和通胀浪潮（如果不保持燃料补贴）之间做出选择。

“By keeping the subsidy scheme broadly in place, the passthrough of dizzyingly high commodity prices to domestic inflation should remain relatively muted for Malaysia,” he continued. “We are tuning our 2022 inflation view upward due to the broader impulse, but rather narrowly, from 2.3% to 2.7% year-on-year now.”

"通过保持补贴计划的广泛实施，令人眼花缭乱的高商品价格对马来西亚来说应该保持相对温和，"他继续说道。"由于更广泛的推动力，我们正在调整2022年的通胀观点，但幅度很小，从现在的2.3%上调到2.7%。