World Bank warns of rising global recession risk amid simultaneous rate hikes


image-20220920092952-1As central banks across the world simultaneously hike interest rates in response to inflation, the world may be edging toward a global recession in 2023, the World Bank warned on Thursday (15th September).

世界银行周四(9 月 15 日)警告称,随着世界各国央行同时加息以应对通胀,世界可能在 2023 年逐渐走向全球衰退。


Central banks around the world have been raising interest rates this year with a degree of synchronicity not seen over the past five decades - a trend that is likely to continue well into next year, the World Bank said in a new study, reported Xinhua.

据新华社报道,世界银行在一项新研究中表示,今年世界各国央行一直在以过去 50 年未见的同步性提高利率——这一趋势很可能会持续到明年。


Yet the currently expected trajectory of interest rate increases and other policy actions may not be sufficient to bring global inflation back down to levels seen before the pandemic, the study noted.



Investors expect central banks to raise global monetary policy rates to almost 4% through 2023 — an increase of more than 2 percentage points over their 2021 average, according to the study.

该研究显示,投资者预计各国央行将在 2023 年之前将全球货币政策利率提高至近 4%,比 2021 年的平均水平高出 2 个百分点以上。


"If this were accompanied by financial-market stress, global GDP (gross domestic product) growth would slow to 0.5% in 2023 — a 0.4% contraction in per-capita terms that would meet the technical definition of a global recession," the study noted.

该研究表明:“如果这伴随着金融市场压力,全球 GDP(国内生产总值)增长将在 2023 年放缓至 0.5%——人均收缩 0.4%,这将符合全球衰退的技术定义”。


Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's acting vice president for Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions, noted that because the rate hikes are highly synchronous across countries, they could be "mutually compounding" in tightening financial conditions and steepening the global growth slowdown.

世界银行负责公平增长、金融和机构的代理副行长Ayhan Kose指出,由于各国的加息高度同步,它们可能在收紧金融条件和加剧全球增长放缓方面“相互叠加”。


"Policymakers in emerging market and developing economies need to stand ready to manage the potential spillovers from globally synchronous tightening of policies," said Kose.



A string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies that would do them lasting harm, according to the study.



"My deep concern is that these trends will persist, with long-lasting consequences that are devastating for people in emerging market and developing economies," said World Bank President David Malpass.

世界银行行长David Malpass说:“我深感担忧的是,这些趋势将持续下去,对新兴市场和发展中经济体的人们造成毁灭性的长期后果。”


"To achieve low inflation rates, currency stability and faster growth, policymakers could shift their focus from reducing consumption to boosting production," said Malpass.

为了实现低通胀率、货币稳定和更快的增长,政策制定者可以将重点从减少消费转向提高生产,” Malpass说。


"Policies should seek to generate additional investment and improve productivity and capital allocation, which are critical for growth and poverty reduction," Malpass added.

政策应寻求产生额外投资并提高生产力和资本配置,这对于增长和减贫至关重要,” Malpass补充说。