US-China chip war expected to add further volatility to M'sian semiconductor sector

Shares in Asian semiconductor makers and suppliers are likely to further lose appeal among investors, after the US drastically dialled up restrictions on chip exports to China earlier this month, according to Morningstar director of equity research in Asia Lorraine Tan.

晨星亚洲股票研究主管 Lorraine Tan 表示，在美国本月早些时候大幅放宽对中国的芯片出口限制后，亚洲半导体制造商和供应商的股票可能会进一步失去对投资者的吸引力。.

Tan said that as a result of the curb, Asian chipmakers, including Malaysia, are sandwiched between rising geopolitical tension between the two economic behemoths.

Tan说，由于限制，包括马来西亚在内的亚洲芯片制造商被夹在两个经济巨头之间日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势之中。

“The growing geopolitical anxiety between the US and China is not good for Asia, and it will continue to be one of the events that we will have to watch out for. Unfortunately, we don't see that ending. It will continue to add volatility to this sector,” said Tan in the Morningstar Asia Equity Q4 Outlook Media Webcast on 20 Oct.

“美国和中国之间日益增长的地缘政治焦虑对亚洲不利，它将继续成为我们必须提防的事件之一。不幸的是，我们看不到那个结局。它将继续增加该行业的波动性，”Tan 在10 月 20 日的晨星亚洲股票 Q4 展望媒体网络直播中表示。

On Oct 7, President Joe Biden's administration via the US Department of Commerce imposed a broader restriction on semiconductor exports to China, including requiring US companies to acquire a licence to export high-performance chips to the republic.

10 月 7 日，Joe Biden总统的政府通过美国商务部对向中国出口半导体实施了更广泛的限制，包括要求美国公司获得向该共和国出口高性能芯片的许可证。

Since the announcement, the Bursa Malaysia Technology Index (KLTEC) has fallen as much as 5.96% (7th October to 19th October). The index comprises large semiconductor companies such as Malaysian Pacific Industries Bhd, D&O Green Technologies Bhd, Unisem (M) Bhd, VS Industry Bhd, SKP Resources Bhd, ViTrox Corp Bhd, Greatech Technology Bhd, UWC Bhd, Pentamaster Corp Bhd, Mi Technovation Bhd, Frontken Corp Bhd, Inari Amertron Bhd and Aemulus Holdings Bhd.

自宣布以来，大马交易所科技指数（KLTEC）已下跌多达 5.96%（10 月 7 日至 19 日）。该指数包括大型半导体公司，例如 Malaysia Pacific Industries Bhd、D&O Green Technologies Bhd、Unisem (M) Bhd、VS Industry Bhd、SKP Resources Bhd、ViTrox Corp Bhd、Greatech Technology Bhd、UWC Bhd、Pentamaster Corp Bhd、Mi Technovation Bhd 、Frontken Corp Bhd、Inari Amertron Bhd 和 Aemulus Holdings Bhd。

In the last six months, KLTEC has fallen 21.64%. It stood at 57.24 points on 19 Oct, from 72.10 on April 19th.

在过去六个月中，KLTEC 下跌了 21.64%。10 月 19 日为 57.24 点，而 4 月 19 日为 72.10。

Equity analyst for semiconductors Phelix Lee added that the recovery of the semiconductor sector at large also hinges upon the rebound of the Chinese economy, which is the world's largest consumer of chips.

半导体股票分析师 Phelix Lee 补充说，整个半导体行业的复苏也取决于中国经济的反弹，中国经济是全球最大的芯片消费国。

“With China's macro a bit soft at the moment, Malaysia will not be immune to slowing demand from China. But Malaysia's advantage is that its semiconductor sector has back-end processes as compared to other countries,” said Lee.

“由于目前中国的宏观经济有点疲软，马来西亚将无法幸免于中国需求放缓的影响。但马来西亚的优势在于其半导体行业与其他国家相比具有后端流程，“Lee说。

Malaysia contributes some 80% of global back-end semiconductor output, with Penang being the country's main manufacturing hub of semiconductors.

马来西亚贡献了全球约 80% 的后端半导体产出，槟城是该国主要的半导体制造中心。

While the situation is not exclusive to Malaysia, the US-China fallout also extends beyond China to other major semiconductor companies in Japan, and South Korea, as these countries weather similar sell-offs among investors.

虽然这种情况并非马来西亚独有，但美中影响也从中国延伸到日本和韩国的其他主要半导体公司，因为这些国家在投资者中遭遇了类似的抛售。

“Although a further decline in demand is a concern, stock prices generally bottom out when the inventory level hits the peak. Semiconductor billings have started to slow down significantly over the past few months, and the inventory correction may last at least until mid-2023,” said Lee.

“尽管需求进一步下降令人担忧，但当库存水平达到顶峰时，股价通常会触底。在过去的几个月里，半导体的账单已经开始显着放缓，库存调整可能至少持续到 2023 年年中，”Lee 说。

Therefore, the recovery of semiconductor stocks may be slower than the recovery of other electronic devices, such as high-performance computing applications or vehicle electrification, he added.

因此，他补充说，半导体股票的复苏可能慢于其他电子设备的复苏，例如高性能计算应用或汽车电气化。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's biggest contract chipmaker with a fabrication facility in China, has fallen 9.25% since 7th October.

自 10 月 7 日以来，全球最大的代工芯片制造商台积电 (TSMC) 已下跌 9.25%。

Its shares hit their lowest since August 2020 at NT$397.50 (RM58.60) per share.

其股价跌至 2020 年 8 月以来的最低点，为每股新台币 397.50 元（58.60 令吉）。

“We reckon that TSMC's share price today has priced in an over 20% decline in 2023 earnings per share (EPS) versus 2022 levels, and a low likelihood of growth in 2024. An EPS decline of this magnitude in TSMC was unseen during the global financial crisis in 2008-09. During the crisis, EPS declined [only] 17.4% over the course of two years,” said Lee.

我们认为，台积电目前的股价反映出，2023年每股收益(EPS)将较2022年下降20%以上，2024年增长的可能性较低。在2008-09年全球金融危机期间，台积电的每股收益降幅如此之大是前所未闻的。在金融危机期间，每股收益在两年时间里只下降了17.4%。”

In comparison, Japan's Taiyo Yuden has fallen 2.43% since 7th October, while South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co is 0.71% lower.

相比之下，日本Taiyo Yuden自 10 月 7 日以来已下跌 2.43%，而韩国三星电子(Samsung Electronics Co .)则下跌 0.71%。