Slowing consumer spending on absence of government boosters

The growth momentum of consumer spending may cool down in financial year 2023 (FY23) due to the absence of spending boosters by the government. 

由于政府缺乏支出助推器，消费者支出的增长势头可能会在2023财年（FY23）降温。

RHB Research said although consumer spending was likely to remain largely resilient in FY23 underpinned by stable employment markets and economic growth, the absence of Employees Provident Fund withdrawals, loan moratoriums, low interest rates as well as high commodity prices and pent-up demand might have an effect. 

RHB Research表示，尽管在稳定的就业市场和经济增长的支持下，消费者支出在23财年可能保持基本弹性，但没有雇员公积金提取，贷款延期，低利率以及高商品价格和被压抑的需求可能会产生影响。

"Externally, a deep global economic slowdown is a major risk, whereas internally, regulatory or policy changes such as the re-introduction of the Goods and Services Tax and subsidy rationalisation will have material knock-on effects on consumer spending," said its analysts Soong Wei Siang and Raja Nur Aqilah Nur Ali. 

“从外部来看，全球经济深度放缓是一个主要风险，而在内部，监管或政策变化，如重新引入商品和服务税和补贴合理化将对消费者支出产生重大连锁反应，”其分析师Soong Wei Siang和Raja Nur Aqilah Nur Ali表示。

Out of 13 consumer companies under RHB's coverage which had reported third quarter (Q3) results, six outperformed, four were within expectations and three disappointed. 

在兴业银行覆盖的13家已公布第三季度业绩的消费品公司中，有6家表现优异，4家在预期之内，3家令人失望。

"In addition, we saw both the two poultry companies under our coverage, QL Resources and Leong Hup International, booking stronger-than-expected earnings, partially due to government subsidies given as a result of ceiling price enforcement," they said. 

“此外，我们看到我们覆盖的两家家禽公司QL Resources和Leong Hup International的收益强于预期，部分原因是政府因执行上限价格而提供补贴，”他们说。

On revenue, all companies recorded strong year-on-year (YoY) recoveries as Q3 2021 was a low base. 

在收入方面，由于 2021 年第三季度的基数较低，所有公司均录得强劲的同比复苏。

They noted quite a few consumer retail players recorded sales declines sequentially, which was not surprising in view of the exceptionally strong Q2 2022 and the seasonally weaker Q3 2022 on the lack of festivities. 

他们指出，不少消费者零售业者的销售额环比下降，考虑到 2022 年第二季度异常强劲，而 2022 年第三季度因缺乏庆祝活动而季节性疲软，这并不奇怪。

"Consumer staples or food producers have continued to see cost pressures crimping margins, on the back of elevated commodity prices and compounded by unfavourable FX rate."

“在大宗商品价格上涨和不利的外汇汇率的背景下，消费必需品或食品生产商继续看到成本压力压低利润率。

The firm expects Mr DIY Group Bhd's earnings to rebound on the margin recovery, while it also liked its robust expansion plan and entrenched network to capture consumer spending. 

该公司预计Mr. DIY Group Bhd的收益将因利润率回升而反弹，同时也喜欢其强大的扩张计划和根深蒂固的网络，以吸引消费者支出。

It said Guan Chong Bhd's current valuation was attractive, with earnings expected to inflect from FY23 onwards, primarily on progressive contributions from its Ivory Coast venture. 

它表示，Guan Chong Bhd目前的估值具有吸引力，预计收益将从23财年开始波动，主要是由于其科特迪瓦合资企业的渐进式贡献。

"Heineken Malaysia is our preferred pick in the brewery space, due to its cheaper valuation and market leadership in Malaysia," said RHB. 

“Heineken Malaysia是我们在啤酒厂领域的首选，因为它在马来西亚的估值和市场领导地位较低，”RHB表示。

The firm maintained "Neutral" on the consumer products sector.

该公司在消费品领域保持“中性”。