Semiconductor industry bears the brunt of renewed trade tensions
Geopolitical tension between China and the US is escalating after US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. This is expected to trigger another round of trade sanctions between the two nations, which are likely to worsen current supply chain disruptions, in addition to renewed trade tensions, said fund managers and equity strategists.
在美国众议院议长南希佩洛西访问台湾后，中美之间的地缘政治紧张局势正在升级。基金经理和股票策略师表示，预计这将引发两国之间的另一轮贸易制裁，除了新的贸易紧张局势外，这可能会加剧当前的供应链中断。
The semiconductor-related industry appears to be one that will bear the brunt of the rising geopolitical tension in Asia, as it chokes the global semiconductor supply chain.
半导体相关行业似乎将首当其冲受到亚洲不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势的影响，因为它扼杀了全球半导体供应链。
When contacted, Areca Capital Sdn Bhd Chief Executive Officer Danny Wong said should tensions over Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan escalate, this may further disrupt the fragile global chip supply chain. He is referring to the impact of the shipment and orders of the chip supply from Taiwan to the world.
Areca Capital Sdn Bhd 首席执行官 Danny Wong 在联系时表示，如果佩洛西台湾之行的紧张局势升级，这可能会进一步扰乱脆弱的全球芯片供应链。他指的是从台湾到世界的芯片供应的出货量和订单的影响。
Notably, Taiwan is a dominant force when it comes to the world’s semiconductor supply, thanks to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), which is the world’s largest semiconductor foundry.
值得注意的是，台湾是全球半导体供应的主导力量，这要归功于全球最大的半导体代工厂台积电 (TSMC)。
In response to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China is said to conduct military drills from 4th to 7th Aug around the Taiwan straits — which separates Taiwan from mainland China and straddles vital shipping lanes — a move that could result in disruptions to shipments and the island’s energy supply, and potentially halt manufacturing.
作为对佩洛西访问台湾的回应，据说中国将于 8 月 4 日至 7 日在台湾海峡进行军事演习，该海峡将台湾与中国大陆分隔开来，横跨重要的航道，此举可能导致运输和岛屿能源中断供应，并可能停止制造。
“With Taiwan accounting for more than half of the world's chip production, the global chip supply will be severely disrupted as other countries except for South Korea do not have the technological capability and production capacity to manufacture the advanced chips to meet global demand. Malaysia's consumer and industrial electronics, as well as the automotive industries that depend on imported chips, will suffer another round of global supply shortages,” Sunway University Business School Professor Dr Yeah Kim Leng stressed.
“由于台湾占全球芯片产量的一半以上，全球芯片供应将受到严重干扰，因为除韩国以外的其他国家不具备制造先进芯片以满足全球需求的技术能力和生产能力。马来西亚的消费和工业电子产品，以及依赖进口芯片的汽车行业，将遭受新一轮的全球供应短缺，”双威大学商学院教授 Yeah Kim Leng 博士强调。
It should be noted that Pelosi’s presence in Taiwan also made her the highest-ranking American official to visit Taiwan in 25 years, and this threatens further the destabilised Sino-US ties.
值得一提的是，佩洛西在台的存在也使她成为25年来访台的美国最高官员，这进一步威胁到了中美关系的不稳定。
“If the retaliation by China against Pelosi's visit results in an armed conflict, the consequences for both economies and the repercussions throughout the region will be very severe. The destabilising effects and supply chain and trade disruptions will likely trigger a recession in the region, with long-term consequences as the cross-strait confrontation inevitably will involve the US,” said Yeah.
“如果中国对佩洛西访华的报复导致武装冲突，对两国经济和整个地区的影响都将非常严重。不稳定的影响以及供应链和贸易中断可能会引发该地区的衰退，并产生长期后果，因为两岸对抗将不可避免地涉及美国，”Yeah说。
According to Yeah, Taiwan and the South China Sea are seen as flash points of the US-China rivalry, which is expected to intensify in the coming years as the US seeks to contain the rise of China.
根据Yeah的观点，台湾和南中国海被视为美中竞争的爆发点，随着美国寻求遏制中国的崛起，预计未来几年这种竞争将加剧。
“Any escalation in the superpower competition will therefore be highly destabilising and disruptive for the region's growth and development. As the world's two largest economies are Malaysia's top trading partners and source of foreign direct investment, the rising geopolitical tension and possible decoupling will have strong negative effects on Malaysia's growth prospects,” Yeah stated.
“因此，超级大国竞争的任何升级都将对该地区的增长和发展造成高度不稳定和破坏。由于世界上最大的两个经济体是马来西亚最大的贸易伙伴和外国直接投资的来源，不断加剧的地缘政治紧张局势和可能的脱钩将对马来西亚的增长前景产生强烈的负面影响，“Yeah说。
Notably, both China and the US are the major export destinations for Malaysia. China is the country’s second-largest export market after Singapore (14.4%), accounting for 13.7% of Malaysia’s overall exports over the past six months this year (January to June), while the US accounted for 10.7% of Malaysia’s overall exports during the same period.
值得注意的是，中国和美国都是马来西亚的主要出口目的地。中国是该国仅次于新加坡（14.4%）的第二大出口市场，占今年过去六个月（1-6月）马来西亚整体出口的13.7%，而美国则占马来西亚整体出口的10.7%。同一时期。
In a recent interview with CNN, Mark Liu, chairman of TSMC, which supplies chips to giant global companies including Apple Inc, Intel Corp, Qualcomm Inc and Tesla Inc, said that the Chinese invasion of Taiwan would halt chip production and such invasion would create great economic turmoil for both China and Taiwan.
在最近接受CNN采访时，为苹果公司、英特尔公司、高通公司和特斯拉公司等全球巨头提供芯片的台积电董事长Mark Liu表示，中国入侵台湾将停止芯片生产，这种入侵将造成中国大陆和台湾都经历了巨大的经济动荡。
Despite the escalating US-China tensions, experts are not expecting Beijing to launch a war over Taiwan.
尽管美中紧张局势不断升级，但专家们并不认为北京会对台湾发动战争。
MIDF Research’s Head of Research Imran Yassin Md Yusof opined that it is very difficult to say for certain if it will result in military action, and added that one response from China could be to pressure rather than undertaking an outright invasion.
MIDF Research 的研究主管 Imran Yassin Md Yusof 认为，很难确定这是否会导致军事行动，并补充说，中国的一种反应可能是施压而不是直接入侵。
“I think it is very hard to judge right now on the impact to our economy should this tension escalate further, given China is well integrated into our and [the] global economy. Hence, it will be difficult to assess the risk for investors at the moment. We need to observe China's reaction to this visit because the different reactions would require different assessments and consideration,” Imran added.
“我认为，如果这种紧张局势进一步升级，现在很难判断对我们经济的影响，因为中国已经很好地融入了我们和全球经济。因此，目前很难评估投资者的风险。我们需要观察中国对这次访问的反应，因为不同的反应需要不同的评估和考虑，”Imran补充说。
Areca’s Wong is optimistic and expects Malaysia to continue to benefit from the accelerated trade diversion due to US-China trade tension, as more multinational companies shift their supply chain activities out of China into Southeast Asia.
Areca 的 Wong 持乐观态度，预计随着越来越多的跨国公司将其供应链活动从中国转移到东南亚，马来西亚将继续受益于中美贸易紧张局势导致的贸易转移加速。
Nonetheless, fears of an escalation in US-China trade tension have soured the sentiment over the local equity market, according to Malacca Securities Sdn Bhd Head of Research Loui Low Ley Yee, adding that the sentiment would remain negative until there is more clarity from China in response to this highly controversial trip.
尽管如此，马六甲证券私人有限公司研究部主管Loui Low Ley Yee表示，对中美贸易紧张局势升级的担忧削弱了当地股市的情绪，并补充说，在中国情况更加明朗之前，市场情绪仍将保持负面。为了回应这次极具争议的旅行。
“No one knows what China is going to do. Once China puts in [it's] measure (either good or bad), it will affect market conditions….perhaps it might be affecting selected counters such as Frontken Corp Bhd, as they are linked closely with TSMC. Also, some counters are having exposure in China, which might be impacted if the US wants to impose sanctions [there],” he stated.
“没有人知道中国要做什么。一旦中国采取 [it's] 措施（无论好坏），它将影响市场状况……也许它可能会影响 Frontken Corp Bhd 等选定的柜台，因为它们与台积电密切相关。此外，一些柜台正在中国开展业务，如果美国想在[那里]实施制裁，这可能会受到影响，”他说。
Taiwan was the biggest revenue contributor to Frontken, with a revenue of RM172.15 million for the cumulative six months ended 30th June, 2022 (6MFY22), which accounts for almost 70% of its total revenue of RM247.34 million.
台湾是 Frontken 的最大收入贡献者，截至 2022 年 6 月 30 日（6MFY22）的累计六个月收入为 1.7215 亿令吉，占其总收入 2.4734 亿令吉的近 70%。
On Wednesday, the FBM KLCI closed down 0.3% or 4.48 points to 1,490.57, mirroring the weakness in the US equities overnight.
周三，富时隆综指收跌 0.3% 或 4.48 点至 1,490.57，反映隔夜美股疲软。
Meanwhile, the KL Technology Index rebounded from Tuesday's loss to end higher, advancing 1.03% at 65.45 points
与此同时，吉隆坡科技指数从周二的跌势中反弹收高，上涨 1.03% 至 65.45 点。