Sectors facing headwinds
As investors bid goodbye to 2022, a year when equity prices lost ground as interest rates headed higher, we now take a look at the industry sectors that are likely to perform on favourable tailwinds and those that are facing challenges in 2023
随着投资者告别 2022 年，2023 年股价因利率走高而下跌，我们现在来看看在有利的顺风下可能表现良好的行业和在 2023 年面临挑战的行业
Chip demand downcycle to haunt technology sector in 2023
芯片需求下行周期将在 2023 年困扰科技行业
Market watchers believe the global semiconductor sector's demand downcycle that started this year is expected to persist into 2023, much to the pain of the local technology sector.
市场观察人士认为，今年开始的全球半导体行业需求下行周期预计将持续到 2023 年，这将给当地科技行业带来很大的痛苦。
TA Securities Holdings Bhd head of research Kaladher Govindan remained “neutral” on the semiconductor sector and expects the demand downcycle to continue for most of 2023, underpinned by expectations for slowing global economic growth with recessionary risk and softer demand from the computer, communications and consumer markets.
TA Securities Holdings Bhd 研究主管 Kaladher Govindan 对半导体行业保持“中立”，并预计需求下行周期将在 2023 年的大部分时间里持续，原因是预期全球经济增长放缓、衰退风险以及计算机、通信和消费者需求疲软市场。
“Beyond near-term headwinds, we remain optimistic about the semiconductor sector's mid-to-longer term growth prospects. We expect its next leg of growth to be fuelled by the ongoing acceleration in digitalisation and the proliferation of secular technology trends, including 5G, artificial intelligence, cloud computing, the internet of things, robotics, and vehicle electrification, among others.
“除了近期的逆风，我们对半导体行业的中长期增长前景仍然持乐观态度。我们预计其下一阶段的增长将受到数字化持续加速和长期技术趋势扩散的推动，包括 5G、人工智能、云计算、物联网、机器人和汽车电气化等。
“For reference, the semiconductor sector is one which is cyclical in nature, with boom-and-bust cycles typically correlating with global growth but exhibiting growth over the longer term,” Kaladher said in an annual strategy report on 20th December.
Kaladher 在 12 月 20 日的年度战略报告中表示：“作为参考，半导体行业本质上是一个周期性行业，繁荣与萧条的周期通常与全球增长相关，但从长期来看会呈现增长。”
Malacca Securities Sdn Bhd head of research Loui Low Ley Yee has a mixed view on the semiconductor and technology sector, similarly holding the belief that the demand downcycle is expected to continue in 2023.
Malacca Securities Sdn Bhd 研究主管 Loui Low Ley Yee 对半导体和科技领域的看法不一，同样认为需求下行周期预计将在 2023 年持续。
“So in the next few quarters we are going to see some slower numbers,” he said, but noted that he foresees this cycle to not prolong for too long and expects recovery in the second half of 2023.
“所以在接下来的几个季度，我们将看到一些放缓的数字，”他说，但指出他预计这个周期不会延长太久，并预计 2023 年下半年会出现复苏。
Pending this recovery, Low also warned that the sector's earnings may take a hit in the coming two to three quarters due to the stronger local note versus the greenback, which may result in flattish earnings and could be perceived by market participants as a slowdown in the technology sector.
在复苏之前，Low 还警告说，由于本地纸币兑美元走强，该行业的收益可能在未来两到三个季度受到打击，这可能导致收益持平，并可能被市场参与者视为经济放缓技术部门。
“So all in all, I have a mixed feeling on the semiconductor and tech sector. Those technology companies that are still making 10% to 20% earnings growth in terms of q-o-q (quarter-on-quarter), I think they are still quite alright."
“总而言之，我对半导体和科技行业的看法很复杂。那些按季度（季度环比）盈利增长仍在 10% 到 20% 的科技公司，我认为它们还是相当不错的。”
Headwinds ahead for plantation sector
种植业面临逆风
It's been a roller coaster ride for the plantation sector in 2022. Daily CPO prices have fallen more than 51% since their peak on 2nd May (RM8,076.50 per tonne) to RM3,899 per tonne on 23rd December, amid a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and easing of Indonesia's palm oil export ban.
2022 年的种植业就像坐过山车一样。自 5 月 2 日的峰值（每吨 8,076.50 令吉）以来，每日原棕油价格已下跌超过 51% 至 12 月 23 日的每吨 3,899 令吉，可能会结束俄罗斯与乌克兰的冲突和印度尼西亚棕榈油出口禁令的放松。
Some plantation analysts noted that 2023 is going to be a difficult year for the sector amid expectations of lower CPO prices ahead.
一些种植园分析师指出，由于预计未来原棕油价格会下降，2023 年对该行业来说将是艰难的一年。
CGS-CIMB Research analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang predicts that the average CPO prices will not reach the RM5,000 to RM6,000 level in 2022, and that the attractive dividend yield of plantations may not sustain in 2023.
CGS-CIMB Research 分析师 Ivy Ng Lee Fang 预测，2022 年毛棕榈油的平均价格不会达到 5,000 至 6,000 令吉的水平，而种植园的诱人股息收益率可能无法维持到 2023 年。
She forecasts average CPO prices to fall to RM3,800 per tonne in 2023 from RM5,122 per tonne in 2022. Meanwhile, the average dividend yield of plantation companies tracked by CGS-CIMB was 4.8% in 2022; it is expected to fall to 3.4% in 2023.
她预测原棕油平均价格将从 2022 年的每吨 5,122 令吉降至 2023 年的每吨 3,800 令吉。同时，CGS-CIMB 追踪的种植公司的平均股息收益率在 2022 年为 4.8%；预计到 2023 年将降至 3.4%。
“We advise investors to be selective in the sector and we would not recommend people to 'sell' plantation stocks at the current low price levels. There is a lack of catalysts to drive the stock price higher for the time being,” said Ng, who maintained a 'neutral' call for the sector.
“我们建议投资者在该行业有所选择，我们不会建议人们在当前的低价位‘卖出’种植园股票。目前缺乏推动股价走高的催化剂，” Ng 表示，他维持对该行业的“中性”评级。
On the other hand, TA Securities Research analyst Angeline Chin said market sentiment is still highly uncertain and slowing economies are clouding the outlook for edible oils.
另一方面，达证券研究分析师Angeline Chin表示，市场情绪仍高度不确定，经济放缓令食用油前景蒙上阴影。
“We will need to monitor the market conditions closely, especially on recessionary risks in EU and US and China's border reopening in 2023,” said Chin in a note dated 14th December.
Chin 在日期为 12 月 14 日的一份报告中表示：“ 我们需要密切关注市场状况，尤其是欧盟和美国的衰退风险以及中国 2023 年重新开放边境。”
Nonetheless, the analyst, who reiterated her 'neutral' call, does not expect CPO prices to see a major correction as the price will be supported by the weakening of ringgit against the US dollar, which will increase the competitiveness of Malaysia's CPO exports.
尽管如此，这位重申“中性”观点的分析师预计原棕油价格不会出现重大调整，因为令吉兑美元走弱将支撑价格，这将提高马来西亚原棕油出口的竞争力。
Automotive sales set to cool but several factors will mitigate the softening
汽车销售将降温，但有几个因素将缓解疲软
2022 is likely a record high year for vehicle sales, thanks to the extension of sales tax exemption. But sales are likely to soften in 2023 amid rising interest rates and concerns over a global economic slowdown, which may see consumers deferring purchases of big-ticket items like cars.
由于销售税豁免的延长，2022 年可能是汽车销量创历史新高的一年。但由于利率上升和对全球经济放缓的担忧，2023 年的销售额可能会走软，这可能会导致消费者推迟购买汽车等大件商品。
Still, factors such as a stronger ringgit against the US dollar and Japanese yen, an easing of commodity prices, a spill over of backlog orders, and new launches may mitigate the softening.
尽管如此，令吉兑美元和日元走强、大宗商品价格走软、积压订单溢出以及新品推出等因素可能会缓解疲软。
RHB Research Jim Lim Khai Xhiang, who placed the sector on 'neutral', noted that while bookings from July onwards — which are no longer eligible for sales tax exemption — have slowed, most marques are seeing gradual month-on-month improvements as consumers adapt to the adjusted prices.
将该行业评级为“中性”的 RHB Research Jim Lim Khai Xhiang 指出，虽然从 7 月开始不再有资格享受销售税豁免的预订已经放缓，但大多数品牌都看到了逐月的逐步改善，因为消费者适应调整后的价格。
“Orders for some marques are back to levels recorded earlier in the year, as new product launches are driving these orders. For example, Perodua's current 200,000 order backlog is partially driven by the new Alza, which is proving to be very popular,” he said in a report dated 16th December.
“一些品牌的订单回到了今年早些时候的水平，因为新产品的发布推动了这些订单。例如，Perodua 目前的 200,000 份订单积压部分是由新的 Alza 驱动的，它被证明非常受欢迎，” 他在 12 月 16 日的一份报告中说。
AmInvestment Bank, which is 'overweight' on the sector, also noted that the recent strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar bodes well for carmakers by lowering imported costs as parts and kits are sourced from overseas.
对该行业“增持”的美国投资银行还指出，最近令吉兑美元走强对汽车制造商来说是个好兆头，因为零件和套件是从海外采购的，进口成本降低了。
Key beneficiaries include Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd and UMW Holdings Bhd for exposure to greenbacks while Bermaz Auto Bhd is set to enjoy a higher ringgit against Japanese yen, the investment bank said in its 14th December report.
该投资银行在其 12 月 14 日的报告中表示，主要受益者包括 Tan Chong Motor Holdings Bhd 和 UMW Holdings Bhd 的美元敞口，而 Bermaz Auto Bhd 将享受更高的令吉兑日元汇率。
MIDF Research, in a 7th December report, said easing of commodity prices like steel and aluminium should help lower carmakers' costs. “Additionally, easing global supply chain tightness should progressively lower logistics costs going forward, as seen by the easing in global freight rates and shipping costs,” it said.
MIDF Research 在 12 月 7 日的一份报告中表示，钢铁和铝等大宗商品价格的下降应有助于降低汽车制造商的成本。“此外，全球供应链紧张局势的缓解应该会逐步降低未来的物流成本，正如全球运费和运输成本的下降所表明的那样，”它表示。
The research house also said the automotive sector's valuation remains depressed, with share prices still below pre-pandemic levels, notwithstanding their significant earnings recovery in 2022.
该研究机构还表示，汽车行业的估值仍然低迷，股价仍低于大流行前的水平，尽管它们在 2022 年盈利显着复苏。
As investors appear to still be sceptical on the sector's outlook — particularly demand after expiry of tax holiday — it will be interesting to see if these tailwinds would help sustain TIV in 2023 when prospects of a global economic downturn loom.
由于投资者似乎仍对该行业的前景（尤其是免税期结束后的需求）持怀疑态度，因此当全球经济衰退前景迫在眉睫时，看看这些顺风是否有助于在 2023 年维持 TIV 将是一件有趣的事情。
Analysts mixed on property outlook in 2023
分析师对 2023 年的房地产前景看法不一
Analysts do not have a consensus positive or negative outlook for the property sector in 2023, as some believe that the worst is over, while others point to further challenges.
分析师对 2023 年房地产行业的前景没有一致的正面或负面看法，因为一些人认为最糟糕的时期已经过去，而另一些人则指出面临进一步的挑战。
RHB Research's Loong Kok Wen is overweight on the sector as she believes that Bank Negara Malaysia's interest rate hikes next year will be less aggressive than the 100bps increase logged this year, while political risks have largely dissipated after the latest special Parliamentary sitting, with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim winning a vote of confidence in the Dewan Rakyat via a voice vote.
RHB Research 的 Loong Kok Wen 增持该行业，因为她认为马来西亚国家银行明年的加息幅度将低于今年 100 个基点的加息幅度，而政治风险在最近的特别议会会议后已基本消散，首相拿督斯里安华依布拉欣通过语音投票赢得对下议院的信任投票。
She said when developers released their numbers in the third quarter of 2022, it was interesting to see that the quarter's sales growth over the second quarter (2Q) was flat. In 2Q, the market picked up because of good sentiment arising from the international border reopening and the EPF special withdrawal in April.
她说，当开发商在 2022 年第三季度发布数据时，有趣的是看到该季度的销售增长与第二季度 (2Q) 持平。第二季度，由于国际边境重新开放和 4 月份公积金特别提款带来的良好情绪，市场回暖。
“Considering that two of the overnight policy rate hikes were done in the third quarter, that growth is not bad,” she told The Edge.
“考虑到隔夜政策加息中有两次是在第三季度完成的，增长还不错，”她告诉 The Edge。
Loong also believes that the market has fully priced in issues such as labour shortages and higher material costs. In fact, she opined that as property counters are high beta stocks, the sector may outperform the market in the event of a recovery.
Loong 还认为，市场已经充分消化了劳动力短缺和材料成本上涨等问题。事实上，她认为，由于地产股属于高贝塔系数的股票，一旦复苏，该板块的表现可能会跑赢大市。
However, Kenanga analyst Lum Joe Shen is more cautious, as he believes that the market has not fully priced in potential setbacks, such as higher interest rates, the possible return of the goods and services tax, as well as inflation of construction and raw material prices.
然而，Kenanga 分析师 Lum Joe Shen 更为谨慎，因为他认为市场尚未完全消化潜在的挫折，例如更高的利率、可能的商品和服务税返还，以及建筑和原材料的通胀价格。
According to him, banks have also tightened loan approvals while there is also more supply of homes coming from the secondary market, especially through auction, which is hindering primary market sales.
据他介绍，银行也收紧了贷款审批，而二级市场的房屋供应也有所增加，尤其是通过拍卖，这阻碍了一级市场的销售。
“It's hard for developers to pass on costs due to affordability. A lot of developers have high gearing, and with high interest rates, that means higher borrowing costs, which affects their bottomline. Earnings may come off considerably,” he cautioned.
“由于负担能力，开发商很难转嫁成本。许多开发商负债率高，利率高，这意味着更高的借贷成本，这会影响他们的底线。收益可能会大幅下降，”他警告说。