RHB IB: Pharmaceutical firms to face margin compression in 2023 due to active ingredient price spike

A spike in the prices of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) could potentially erode drug makers' margin for 2023, said RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB IB) Research.

RHB Investment Bank Bhd（RHB IB）研究部表示，活性药物成分（API）价格飙升可能会侵蚀制药商 2023 年的利润率。

In a note on 6th January, the research house said that as Malaysia relies heavily on API imports from China to India, the API price spikes could impact Duopharma Biotech Bhd, whose API imports account for 50% to 60% of its total raw material costs.

该研究机构在1 月 6 日的一份报告中表示，由于马来西亚严重依赖从中国到印度的原料药进口，原料药价格飙升可能会影响 Duopharma Biotech Bhd，其原料药进口占其总进口量的 50% 至 60%原材料成本。

“Numerous types of key starting materials and APIs, such as raw materials for the production of antibiotics, anti-infective, and medication among others — imported to India appear to be 25% to 35% more expensive.

“许多类型的关键起始材料和 API，例如用于生产抗生素、抗感染药和药物等的原材料——进口到印度似乎要贵 25% 到 35%。

“The Covid-19-induced lockdowns of the past years are putting strains on the supply chain, which is unable to catch up with the demand spikes as pandemic infections rise in China,” said analyst Oong Chun Sung in the report.

分析师 Oong Chun Sung 在报告中表示：“过去几年 Covid-19 引发的封锁给供应链带来了压力，随着中国大流行感染的增加，供应链无法赶上需求激增。”

He added every 10% spike in API prices is expected to affect Kotra Industries Bhd by 3% and Duopharma by 5% to 6%.

他补充说，API 价格每上涨 10%，预计将影响 Kotra Industries Bhd 3% 和 Duopharma 5% 至 6%。

“Nonetheless, we expect the earnings impact to be minimal, as cost spikes may not happen as soon (earliest by 2Q2023), given that the major India API supplier still has four to six months of inventory,” said Oong.

“尽管如此，我们预计对收益的影响微乎其微，因为成本飙升可能不会很快发生（最早在 2023 年第二季度），因为主要的印度 API 供应商仍有四到六个月的库存，”Oong 说。

RHB maintained KPJ Healthcare Bhd as its top pick for the healthcare sector, underpinned by its robust patients growth trajectory, being less impacted by nursing staff shortages, and potentially earnings-accretive post disposal of overseas entities by 2023.

兴业银行维持 KPJ Healthcare Bhd 为医疗保健行业的首选，这得益于其强劲的患者增长轨迹、受护理人员短缺的影响较小，以及到 2023 年出售海外实体后可能增加收益。

“While we remain sanguine on healthcare service providers' recovery prospects, we think KPJ's greater domestic focus offers stronger earnings stability.

“虽然我们对医疗保健服务提供商的复苏前景保持乐观，但我们认为 KPJ 对国内的更大关注提供了更强的盈利稳定性。

“For the pharmaceutical players, we believe the resilient consumer demand towards their products, recovery in export sales, and easing of the supply chain bottleneck should help to offset API price spikes,” he noted.

“对于制药企业而言，我们认为消费者对其产品的弹性需求、出口销售的复苏以及供应链瓶颈的缓解应有助于抵消 API 价格飙升的影响，” 他指出。

The key downside risks to the sector call are higher-than-expected operating costs, lower-than-expected patient visits/revenue intensity growth, and unfavourable drug pricing mechanisms from the Ministry of Health, the research outfit noted.

该研究机构指出，该行业呼吁的主要下行风险是运营成本高于预期、患者就诊/收入强度增长低于预期以及卫生部不利的药品定价机制。