RAM Ratings: Malaysia's GDP to slow to 5% in 2023

KUALA LUMPUR: RAM Ratings projected Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to slow to between 4-5 % in 2023 from an estimated 8.2 % in 2022.

吉隆坡：RAM评级预计马来西亚的国内生产总值（GDP）增长将从2022年的估计8.2%放缓至2023年的4%至5%。

The rating agency said global economic slowdown is anticipated to dampen Malaysia’s exports while the still notable price pressures and tighter monetary conditions might impact domestic consumption.

该评级机构表示，预计全球经济放缓将抑制马来西亚的出口，而仍然显着的价格压力和收紧的货币条件可能会影响国内消费。

"That said, domestic demand is expected to drive the economy as businesses and households climb out of the lingering shadows of the COVID-19 pandemic,” it said in a statement on 14th December.

它在12月14日的一份声明中说：“也就是说，随着企业和家庭走出COVID-19大流行的挥之不去的阴影，预计国内需求将推动经济。

It said Malaysia’s broad and diversified base would cushion intensified headwinds to growth in 2023.

它表示，马来西亚广泛而多样化的基础将缓解2023年增长的加剧阻力。

RAM Ratings said the economic growth would also be supported by stronger labour market conditions next year with the average unemployment rate projected to fall to 3.5 % from an estimated 3.8 % in 2022.

RAM Ratings表示，明年劳动力市场状况走强也将支撑经济增长，平均失业率预计将从2022年估计的3.8%降至3.5%。

It said the resolution of issues related to foreign workers and supply chains should also provide additional impetus for growth.

它表示，与外国工人和供应链有关的问题的解决也应该为增长提供额外的动力。

Meanwhile, it said sharper-than-expected deterioration in the global economy and/or domestic inflation are key downside risks for next year.

与此同时，它表示，全球经济和/或国内通胀恶化幅度超过预期是明年的主要下行风险。

On the fiscal side, the rating agency said the more moderate commodity price levels, and in turn the related subsidy expenditure, might keep the fiscal deficit contained within 5.4 % of GDP from an estimated of 5.8 % in 2022.

在财政方面，该评级机构表示，较为温和的商品价格水平以及相关的补贴支出可能会将财政赤字控制在GDP的5.4%以内，而2022年估计为5.8%。

"This estimate is still subject to the final formulation of subsidy rationalisation plans for key items including petrol and electricity tariffs,” it said.

“这一估计仍取决于包括汽油和电价在内的关键项目的补贴合理化计划的最终制定，”它说。

It said with the status quo, the current fiscal space remained fairly tight with government debt projected to reach RM1.1 trillion in 2023 or 62.4 % of GDP and debt servicing at a significant 16.9 % of total projected revenues for 2023 from an estimated 15.1 % in 2022.

它表示，在现状下，目前的财政空间仍然相当紧张，政府债务预计将在2023年达到11万亿令吉，占GDP的62.4%，偿债额占2023年预计总收入的16.9%，而2022年估计为15.1%。