MPOB: CPO price to average at RM5,100 a tonne this year

The Malaysian oil palm industry sees a brighter performance this year, which may continue into 2023, supported by stronger demand for the commodity, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) said.

马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）表示，马来西亚油棕行业今年的表现更加光明，可能会持续到2023年，这得益于对该商品的需求强劲。

Director-general Datuk Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir said the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the sunflower oil supply chain globally, causing a surge in the demand for palm oil as a replacement for sunflower oil.

总干事Datuk Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir表示，持续的俄乌冲突扰乱了全球葵花籽油供应链，导致对棕榈油作为葵花籽油替代品的需求激增。

The rising prices of soybean oil and Brent crude oil in the world market are also contributing factors that may impact the performance of palm oil, he said.

他说，世界市场上豆油和布伦特原油价格的上涨也是可能影响棕榈油表现的因素。

"As such, we expect the price of crude palm oil (CPO) to average at RM5,100 a tonne for this year, 15.7 % higher compared to RM4,407.00 a tonne in 2021,” he said in a statement on 30th December.

“因此，我们预计今年毛棕榈油（CPO）价格平均为每吨5,100令吉，与2021年的每吨4,407.00令吉相比高出15.7%，”他在12月30日的一份声明中说。

The average CPO price for January-November 2022 was RM5,167 a tonne, an increase of 18.4 % from RM4,363 a tonne in the same period in 2021.

2022年1月至11月的平均CPO价格为每吨5,167令吉，比2021年同期的每吨4,363令吉上涨了18.4%。

CPO prices saw a decline at the beginning of the third quarter of this year due to high production season, rising palm oil stocks, and declining soybean oil prices.

由于高产季节、棕榈油库存上升和豆油价格下跌，CPO价格在今年第三季度初出现下降。

Hence, MPOB foresees the CPO price to stabilise and average at RM3,800 a tonne in 2023.

因此，MPOB预计CPO价格将稳定下来，平均在2023年达到每吨3,800令吉。

This is in anticipation of higher palm oil production, improvement in weather conditions especially in the second half of next year, and expectation of higher availability of supply of other major vegetable oils.

这是由于预计棕榈油产量将增加，天气状况（尤其是明年下半年）将有所改善，以及预计其他主要植物油的供应将增加。

Meanwhile, soybean oil prices which are expected to be low due to the high production in Brazil and the United States may also impact the CPO price.

同时，由于巴西和美国的高产量，预计豆油价格将走低，也可能影响CPO价格。

"Additionally, the strengthening of the ringgit against the US dollar may also affect the price of the CPO,” Ahmad Parveez explained.

 “此外，令吉兑美元的走强也可能影响CPO的价格，”Ahmad Parveez解释说。

He said Malaysia’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will encourage demand for palm oil products as it broadens the country’s access to new markets such as Canada, Mexico and Peru, which are not covered by any existing Free Trade Agreement.

他说，马来西亚批准《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》（CPTPP）将鼓励对棕榈油产品的需求，因为它扩大了该国进入加拿大，墨西哥和秘鲁等新市场的机会，这些市场不受任何现有自由贸易协定的涵盖。

Based on the Cost Benefit Analysis of the potential impacts of the CPTPP, upon its ratification and implementation, tariffs for palm oil products are now reduced from a maximum of six % for Canada, five % for Mexico, and nine % for Peru to lower tariffs based on the tariff elimination schedule.

根据对CPTPP潜在影响的成本效益分析，在批准和实施后，棕榈油产品的关税现在从加拿大最高6%、墨西哥5%和秘鲁9%降至基于关税取消时间表的关税。

Apart from higher palm oil exports to the markets, the elimination of tariffs improves the competitiveness of Malaysian palm oil in the CPTPP member countries.

除了增加对市场的棕榈油出口外，取消关税还提高了马来西亚棕榈油在CPTPP成员国中的竞争力。

Exports of palm oil rose slightly by 0.8 % to 14.25 million tonnes in January-November 2022 compared to 14.14 million tonnes in the previous corresponding period.

2022年1-11月棕榈油出口量小幅增长0.8%，至1,425万吨，上年同期为1,414万吨。

As such, palm oil export revenue surged 31 % to RM80.22 billion from RM61.26 billion in the same period in 2021.

因此，棕榈油出口收入从2021年同期的612.6亿令吉飙升31%至802.2亿令吉。

Ahmad Parveez also said that CPO production is expected to increase slightly by 2.1 % to 18.50 million tonnes this year from 18.12 million tonnes in 2021.

Ahmad Parveez还表示，预计CPO产量将从2021年的1,812万吨小幅增长2.1%至今年的1,850万吨。

"We expect a slow recovery in palm oil production due to the labour shortage issue in oil palm plantations, especially for fresh fruit bunch (FFB) harvesting and unloading activities.

“由于油棕种植园的劳动力短缺问题，我们预计棕榈油生产将缓慢复苏，特别是新鲜果串（FFB）的收获和卸载活动。

"CPO production is projected to further increase to 19 million tonnes in 2023 due to the expected increase in productive areas, especially in Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak,” he said.

他说：“由于预计生产地区，特别是马来西亚半岛和砂拉越的产量增加，预计到2023年，CPO产量将进一步增加到1,900万吨。

Additionally, the workforce situation may stabilise next year as foreign worker applications are being approved in stages.

此外，随着外国工人申请分阶段获得批准，明年劳动力状况可能会稳定下来。

CPO production for January-November 2022 stood at 16.83 million tonnes compared to 16.67 million tonnes achieved in the same period in 2021, attributed to an increase in processed FFB to 86.51 million tonnes in January-November 2022 compared with 84.17 million tonnes in the same period last year.

2022年1-11月的CPO产量为1,683万吨，而2021年同期为1,667万吨，原因是2022年1-11月加工FFB从去年同期的8,417万吨增加到8,651万吨。

"In anticipation of higher production, we expect the closing stocks of palm oil in 2022 at 1.85 million tonnes, up 0.24 million tonnes or 14.9 % from 1.61 million tonnes in December 2021,” he said.

他说：“由于预计产量将增加，我们预计2022年棕榈油期末库存将达到185万吨，比2021年12月的161万吨增加24万吨或14.9%。

According to Ahmad Parveez, palm oil closing stocks are projected at two million tonnes in 2023, higher than that in 2022, due to the expected higher supplies of other major vegetable oils including palm oil.

根据Ahmad Parveez的说法，由于包括棕榈油在内的其他主要植物油的供应预计将增加，预计2023年棕榈油期末库存将达到200万吨，高于2022年。