MIDF revises upwards Malaysia's retail trade growth forecast for 2022 to 17.6%

MIDF Research has upgraded its retail trade growth forecast to 17.6% for 2022, up from 10.5% previously, on expectation of stronger gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the second quarter (2Q).

MIDF Research 已将其 2022 年零售贸易增长预测从之前的 10.5% 上调至 17.6%，原因是预计第二季度（第二季度）国内生产总值（GDP）增长将更为强劲。

In a note, the research house said Malaysia’s consumer spending is expanding strongly as reflected in the retail trade sales growth of 19.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first half of 2022 (1H2022).

该研究机构在一份报告中表示，马来西亚的消费支出正在强劲增长，这反映在 2022 年上半年（2022 年上半年）的零售贸易销售额同比增长 19.1%。

Malaysia’s distributive trade sales expanded by 44% y-o-y in June 2022, the fastest pace in 14 months.

2022 年 6 月，马来西亚的分销贸易销售额同比增长 44%，为 14 个月以来的最快增速。

As for 2Q2022, distributive trade sales grew by 26.3% y-o-y (1Q2022: 8.6% y-o-y).

至于 2022 年第二季度，经销行业销售额同比增长 26.3%（2022 年第一季度：同比增长 8.6%）。

"Most notably, domestic demand continued to stay on an uptrend contributed by improving labour market, stable inflationary pressure, further reviving of the domestic economy including international borders reopening and special Employees Provident Fund withdrawals in April 2022.

“最值得注意的是，由于劳动力市场改善、通胀压力稳定、国内经济进一步复苏（包括国际边境重新开放和 2022 年 4 月特别雇员公积金提款），国内需求继续保持上升趋势。

"Looking ahead, the upbeat momentum of domestic demand is set to continue in the second half of the year, particularly driven by stable overall price growth and lower unemployment rate," it said.

“展望未来，内需的乐观势头将在下半年持续，特别是在总体价格稳定增长和失业率下降的推动下，”它表示。

MIDF believes the pent-up demand will continue until the end of this year, underpinned by an improving labour market, stable inflationary pressure and the continued reopening of the domestic economy.

MIDF认为，在劳动力市场改善、通胀压力稳定和国内经济持续重启的支撑下，被压抑的需求将持续到今年年底。

"Even though the overnight policy rate (OPR) is on an upward trajectory, we believe it would have minimal effect on domestic spending. The OPR is set to reach 2.50-2.75% by end of this year, still below 2019’s level of 3.00%," it noted.

“尽管隔夜政策利率（OPR）处于上升轨道，但我们认为它对国内支出的影响微乎其微。到今年年底，隔夜政策利率将达到 2.50-2.75%，仍低于 2019 年 3.00% 的水平”它指出。

Malaysia’s monetary policy is on a normalisation process rather than tightening, possibly to reach 3.00% by the middle of next year, MIDF said.

MIDF表示，马来西亚的货币政策正处于正常化进程而不是收紧，可能在明年年中达到3.00%。