Malaysia’s inflation set to catch up with regional peers in 2H

Inflation in Malaysia is poised to catch up with neighbouring countries in the second half of this year, after relatively benign consumer price index (CPI) readings until April, thanks to the blanket fuel subsidy, low utilities prices and the inclusion of price-controlled items in the CPI basket.

由于全面的燃料补贴、较低的公用事业价格以及CPI篮子中包含的价格控制项目，马来西亚的通货膨胀率在今年下半年有望赶上邻国，此前直到4月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）读数相对温和。

Across the Causeway, Singapore’s headline inflation hit 5.6% in May, the highest since November 2011, and up from 5.4% in April.

横跨铜锣湾，新加坡的整体通胀率在 5 月份达到 5.6%，为 2011 年 11 月以来的最高水平，高于 4 月份的 5.4%。

Thailand and Indonesia also reported multi-year high inflation figures in May.

泰国和印度尼西亚也在 5 月份公布了多年高通胀数据。

In Malaysia, food prices are set to rise further after the removal of price caps for chicken and eggs, and the discontinuation of subsidy for bottled cooking oil, said economists.

经济学家表示，在马来西亚，取消鸡肉和鸡蛋的价格上限以及停止对瓶装食用油的补贴后，食品价格将进一步上涨。

In addition to food — which has a 29.5% weightage in the CPI basket — the upcoming electricity surcharge review for the July-December period, the planned rationalisation of fuel subsidies and the ringgit’s weakness also post an upside risk to inflation in the second half of 2022, they said.

除了在 CPI 篮子中占 29.5% 权重的食品外，即将进行的 7 月至 12 月期间的电力附加费审查、计划中的燃料补贴合理化和令吉疲软也对下半年的通胀构成上行风险他们说，2022 年。

“We expect CPI to trend higher in coming months as low-base kicks in, coupled with the removal of price ceilings for several key food items and a potential hike in electricity tariff,” UOB senior economist Julia Goh told theedgemarkets.com.

大华银行高级经济学家Julia Goh 告诉theedgemarkets.com：“我们预计未来几个月CPI 将走高，因为基数较低，加上取消了几个关键食品的价格上限以及电价可能上调。”

“Our current CPI forecast is 3.0% for this year. But this excludes the potential [electricity surcharge] adjustments and subsidies [removal],” she said when contacted. Malaysia’s inflation stood at 2.5% last year, after a deflation of 1.1% in 2020.

“我们目前对今年的 CPI 预测为 3.0%。但这不包括潜在的[电费附加费]调整和补贴[取消]，”她在联系时说。在 2020 年通货紧缩 1.1% 之后，马来西亚去年的通货膨胀率为 2.5%。

CGS-CIMB economists Nazmi Idrus and Lim Yee Ping said unless the government steps in again with a larger subsidy, Malaysia is likely to see another round of price increase if electricity prices are raised in the upcoming  revision. The decision is expected to be announced before the end of this month.

CGS-CIMB 经济学家 Nazmi Idrus 和 Lim Yee Ping 表示，除非政府再次介入并提供更大的补贴，否则如果在即将到来的修订中提高电价，马来西亚可能会看到另一轮价格上涨。该决定预计将在本月底前公布。

“Electricity prices under the Imbalance Cost Pass-Through (ICPT) mechanism are subject for a revision in July, which may lead to a hike, given the elevated prices of electricity inputs, namely gas and coal,” they said in a note.

他们在一份报告中说：“考虑到电力投入（即天然气和煤炭）的价格上涨，不平衡成本转嫁（ICPT）机制下的电价可能会在 7 月份进行修订，这可能会导致价格上涨。”

The duo revised their 2022 CPI forecast upward to 3.1% year-on-year, from 2.5% previously, as the price momentum is likely to remain strong ahead.

两人将 2022 年 CPI 预测从之前的 2.5% 上调至 3.1%，因为未来价格势头可能会保持强劲。

If their forecast materialises, this would be the first time Malaysia’s CPI breaches 3.0% since 2017, when inflation stood at 3.8% as domestic fuel and food prices rose during Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s administration, which subsequently lost power in the May 2018 general election. Brent crude rose 18% in 2017 to US$66.87 per barrel, from US$56.82 as at end 2016.

如果他们的预测成为现实，这将是马来西亚 CPI 自 2017 年以来首次突破 3.0%，当时由于拿督斯里纳吉执政期间国内燃料和食品价格上涨，通货膨胀率达到 3.8%，随后在 2018 年 5 月大选中失去权力。2017 年布伦特原油价格从 2016 年底的 56.82 美元上涨 18% 至每桶 66.87 美元。

The CPI stood at 2.1% in both 2015 and 2016 despite the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax as global oil prices were on a downtrend, with Brent crude falling to as low as US$28.55 in January 2016, before recovering to end the year at US$56.82 per barrel.

尽管实施了商品和服务税，但 2015 年和 2016 年 CPI 均保持在 2.1%，因为全球油价处于下跌趋势，布伦特原油在 2016 年 1 月跌至 28.55 美元的低位，然后在年底回升每桶 56.82 美元。

It is worth noting that over the past two decades, the highest CPI growth Malaysia recorded was 5.4% in 2008, after then prime minister Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a restructuring of the fuel subsidy amid surging global crude oil prices. This saw a substantial jump in the RON 95 price to RM2.70 per litre. Abdullah stepped down in the following year and was succeeded by Najib.

值得注意的是，在过去的二十年中，马来西亚的最高消费物价指数增长在 2008 年达到 5.4%，这是在当时的首相Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi在全球原油价格飙升的情况下宣布重组燃料补贴之后。这使得 RON 95 的价格大幅上涨至每升 2.70 令吉。次年Abdullah下台，Najib继位。

The CGS-CIMB analysts said the recent announcement of an additional RM630 million in cash handouts to the B40 group after the removal of ceiling prices for chicken and eggs, indicated that the government is willing to allow for the rise in prices of goods, as long as the vulnerable groups are taken care of.

CGS-CIMB 分析师表示，在取消鸡肉和鸡蛋的最高价格后，最近宣布向 B40 集团额外发放 6.3 亿令吉现金，表明政府愿意允许商品价格上涨，只要因为弱势群体得到照顾。

“For 2023, we expect CPI to grow by 3.2% year-on-year, assuming some adjustments to fuel prices for the high-income groups,” they said.

“假设对高收入群体的燃料价格进行一些调整，我们预计 2023 年 CPI 将同比增长 3.2%，”他们说。

The housing, water, electricity, gas & other fuels category has a 23.8% weightage in the CPI basket, the second highest after food & non-alcoholic beverages, followed by the transport group, which has a 14.6% weightage in the basket.

住房、水、电、天然气和其他燃料类别在 CPI 篮子中的权重为 23.8%，仅次于食品和非酒精饮料，其次是运输组，在篮子中的权重为 14.6%。

“The rising cost of the government’s subsidy bill and supply distortions due to the price controls are pushing the government to re-evaluate the subsidy mechanism,” said BIMB Securities chief economist Imran Nurginias Ibrahim when contacted.

BIMB Securities首席经济学家Imran Nurginias Ibrahim在联系时表示：“由于价格控制，政府补贴法案的成本上升和供应扭曲正在推动政府重新评估补贴机制。”

Higher demand-driven inflation owing to normalising domestic activity and labour market improvements would continue to fuel upside risks to underlying inflation, he said.

他说，由于国内活动正常化和劳动力市场改善，需求驱动的通胀上升将继续加剧潜在通胀的上行风险。

Imran Nurginias’s CPI forecast for 2022 is 2.5% with an upside risk from global energy prices — especially crude oil — as well as elevated food-related commodity prices amid various external uncertainties.

Imran Nurginias 对 2022 年的 CPI 预测为 2.5%，全球能源价格（尤其是原油）以及在各种外部不确定性下食品相关商品价格上涨带来上行风险。

While rationalising fuel subsidies is necessary for Malaysia, the timing of enacting the reform seems tricky, said Bank Islam chief economist Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid.

伊斯兰银行首席经济学家 Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid 表示，虽然马来西亚有必要使燃料补贴合理化，但实施改革的时机似乎很棘手。

“Introducing subsidy rationalisation at a time when prices are skyrocketing could only lead to more problems for the economy and general public,” he said when contacted.

“在价格飞涨的情况下引入补贴合理化只会给经济和公众带来更多问题，”他在联系时说。

“We are looking at high inflation in the second half of the year,; everything is going up. At the moment, we are looking at 2.5% [for 2022 CPI]. Given the recent announcements (on the removal of price ceilings for chicken and egg and subsidy for bottled cooking oil), we are going to revise it but definitely, it is going to be higher than 2.5% for the whole year,” he added. 

“我们正在考虑下半年的高通胀；一切都在上升。目前，我们正在考虑 2.5% [for 2022 CPI]。鉴于最近的公告（关于取消鸡肉和鸡蛋的价格上限以及瓶装食用油的补贴），我们将对其进行修改，但肯定会高于全年的 2.5%，”他补充道。 

Malaysia is due to release May inflation data on 24th June, and consensus estimate points to a 2.7% year-on-year growth, according to Bloomberg data, up from 2.3% in April. The CPI for the first four months of this year grew 2.2% on-year.

大马将于6 月 24 日公布 5 月通胀数据，据彭博社数据，市场普遍预期同比增长 2.7% ，高于 4 月的 2.3%。今年前四个月CPI同比上涨2.2%。

If the projected growth in the May CPI materialises, inflation in the country would be at the highest level since the 3.2% reported for December 2021, which was driven by a low-base effect as the country recorded a deflation of 1.4% in December 2020.

如果 5 月 CPI 的预期增长实现，该国的通胀将处于自 2021 年 12 月报告的 3.2% 以来的最高水平，这是由低基数效应推动的，因为该国在 2020 年 12 月录得 1.4% 的通货紧缩.