Malaysia's growth to lose momentum over coming quarters, says Fitch Solutions

Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research has raised its forecast for Malaysia’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 8.4% in 2022, from 5.9% previously, after the economy expanded by an average of 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first three quarters of the year.

Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research 将其对马来西亚 2022 年实际国内生产总值（GDP）增长率的预测从之前的 5.9% 上调至 8.4%，此前经济年均增长 9.4% -今年前三个季度同比 (yoy)。

In a report on 11th November, the firm, however, kept its 2023 growth forecast unchanged at 4%.

然而，在11 月 11 日的一份报告中，该公司将 2023 年的增长预测维持在 4% 不变。

“Over the coming quarters, we expect that tightening monetary conditions, fading base effects and pent-up demand, as well as a slowing global growth environment will weigh on Malaysia’s economic growth momentum,” it said.

“在未来几个季度，我们预计货币环境收紧、基本效应消退和被压抑的需求，以及全球增长环境放缓将对马来西亚的经济增长势头构成压力，”它说。

Fitch Solutions said Malaysia’s real GDP growth came in at 14.2% y-o-y in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q2022), up from 8.9% in 2Q2022, boosted by strong private consumption and investment, robust exports, and favourable base effects.

Fitch Solutions表示，马来西亚 2022 年第三季度 (3Q2022) 的实际 GDP 同比增长 14.2%，高于 2022 年第二季度的 8.9%，这得益于强劲的私人消费和投资、强劲的出口以及有利的基数效应。

“The economic performance surpassed consensus and our expectations, and brought the average cumulative growth in the first three quarters of the year to 9.4% y-o-y.

“经济表现超出市场普遍预期和我们的预期，使今年前三季度的平均累计增长同比增长9.4%。

“On a seasonally adjusted basis, growth came in at 1.9% q-o-q in 3Q2022, slowing significantly from 3.5% in 2Q2022,” it said.

“经季节性调整后，2022 年第三季度环比增长 1.9%，较第二季度的 3.5% 大幅放缓，”它表示。

Fitch Solutions maintained its view that over the coming quarters, Malaysia’s growth momentum will continue to weaken as credit conditions tighten further and pent-up demand fades.

惠誉解决方案维持其观点，认为在未来几个季度，随着信贷条件进一步收紧和被压抑的需求消退，马来西亚的增长势头将继续减弱。

Moreover, it said the outlook for exports will likely weaken on the back of a slowing global economy and as the semiconductor industry heads into a downcycle.

此外，它表示，在全球经济放缓和半导体行业进入下行周期的背景下，出口前景可能会减弱。

“Considering the latest growth print, we are revising our 2022 growth forecast to 8.4%, from 5.9% previously, but are keeping our 2023 growth forecast unchanged at 4%,” it said.

“考虑到最新的增长数据，我们将 2022 年的增长预测从之前的 5.9% 修改为 8.4%，但将 2023 年的增长预测保持在 4% 不变，”它表示。

Fitch Solutions expects growth to have peaked in 3Q2022, and forecast the economy to expand by just 5.8% in 4Q2022, before decelerating further to an average of 4% in 2023 due to three reasons.

Fitch Solutions 预计增长将在 2022 年第三季度达到顶峰，并预测 2022 年第四季度经济仅增长 5.8%，然后由于三个原因进一步减速至 2023 年的平均 4%。

“First, we expect the growth boost from base effects and pent-up demand from the lifting of Covid-19 curbs to fade in 4Q2022, and especially going into 2023.

“首先，我们预计基础效应带来的增长提振和 Covid-19 限制解除带来的被压抑需求将在 2022 年第四季度消退，尤其是进入 2023 年。

“Households and businesses have already drawn down on their savings considerably since April 2022, suggesting that the surge in aggregate demand in 2Q2022 and 3Q2022 is unlikely to be sustained.

“自 2022 年 4 月以来，家庭和企业已经大幅减少储蓄，这表明 2022 年第二季度和第三季度的总需求激增不太可能持续。

“Furthermore, it is likely that fuel and food subsidies will be scaled back over the coming months as the government attempts to consolidate public finances, and this will likely weigh on household purchasing power going forward,” it said.

“此外，随着政府试图巩固公共财政，未来几个月燃料和食品补贴可能会缩减，这可能会影响未来的家庭购买力，”它说。

Accordingly, the firm forecast private consumption growth to slow significantly to 5% in 2023, from 11.5% in 2022.

因此，该公司预测私人消费增长将从 2022 年的 11.5% 大幅放缓至 2023 年的 5%。