Malaysia's GDP growth to moderate to 4% in 2023, says World Bank

After the strong rebound in 2022, the World Bank sees growth in Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam moderating as the growth of exports to major markets slows.

在 2022 年强劲反弹之后，世界银行预计马来西亚、菲律宾和越南的增长将放缓，因为对主要市场的出口增长放缓。

In the Bank’s latest Global Economic Prospects report released on 10th January, it said growth is projected at 4% in Malaysia, 5.4% in the Philippines, and 6.3% in Vietnam.

该银行在1 月 10 日发布的最新全球经济展望报告中表示，预计马来西亚的增长率为 4%，菲律宾为 5.4%，越南为 6.3%。

It said that in Indonesia, GDP is projected to grow by 4.9% on average in 2023-24, only slightly slower than in 2022, reflecting softening but still robust private spending.

它表示，在印度尼西亚，GDP 预计在 2023-24 年平均增长 4.9%，仅比 2022 年略慢，反映出私人支出疲软但仍然强劲。

Commenting on the region, the World Bank said that after a strong rebound in 2021, growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region slowed markedly in 2022 to an estimated 3.2%, 1.2 percentage point below previous forecasts.

世界银行在评论该地区时表示，在 2021 年强劲反弹之后，东亚和太平洋 (EAP) 地区的增长在 2022 年明显放缓至估计 3.2%，比之前的预测低 1.2 个百分点。

It said the slowdown was almost entirely due to China (which accounts for about 85% of the region’s GDP), where growth slowed sharply to 2.7%, 1.6 percentage points lower than projected in June.

它表示，经济放缓几乎完全归因于中国（约占该地区 GDP 的 85%），中国经济增速大幅放缓至 2.7%，比 6 月份的预测低 1.6 个百分点。

The bank said the country faced recurrent Covid-19 outbreaks and mobility restrictions, unprecedented droughts, and prolonged stress in the property sector, all of which restrained consumption, food and energy production, and residential investment.

该银行表示，该国面临反复爆发的 Covid-19 疫情和流动性限制、前所未有的干旱以及房地产行业的长期压力，所有这些都抑制了消费、食品和能源生产以及住宅投资。

Fiscal and monetary policy support for domestic demand and an easing of restrictions on the real estate sector have only partially offset these headwinds.

对内需的财政和货币政策支持以及对房地产行业限制的放松仅部分抵消了这些不利因素。

In the region excluding China, the pace of growth more than doubled, rising to 5.6% in 2022.

在不包括中国在内的地区，增长速度翻了一番多，到 2022 年增至 5.6%。

The report said activity was supported by a release of pent-up demand as many countries continued to lift pandemic-related mobility restrictions and travel bans.

该报告称，随着许多国家继续解除与大流行病相关的流动限制和旅行禁令，被压抑的需求得到释放，为活动提供了支持。

Growth in the region excluding China in 2022 was 0.8 percentage point above the June forecast, reflecting upgrades for Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, most of which also benefited from a strong rebound of goods exports.

除中国外，该地区 2022 年的增长比 6 月份的预测高出 0.8 个百分点，反映出马来西亚、菲律宾、泰国和越南的上调，其中大部分也受益于商品出口的强劲反弹。

The World Bank said consumer price inflation increased across the region in 2022.

世界银行表示，2022 年该地区的消费者价格通胀将上升。

Notwithstanding this increase, price pressures have been generally more muted in EAP than in other regions.

尽管出现了这种增长，但 EAP 的价格压力普遍低于其他地区。

This partly reflects remaining negative output gaps due to a combination of relatively high potential growth and protracted recovery as well as widespread price controls and subsidies.

这部分反映了由于相对较高的潜在增长和长期复苏以及广泛的价格控制和补贴，仍然存在负产出缺口。

Outlook

外表

Growth in the EAP region is projected to firm to 4.3% in 2023 as easing of pandemic-related restrictions allows activity in China to gradually recover.

随着大流行病相关限制的放宽使中国的经济活动逐渐复苏，预计东太平洋地区 2023 年的增长率将稳步上升至 4.3%。

These projections are below those of last June, where regional growth was expected to surpuss 5% in 2023-24.

这些预测低于去年 6 月的预测，当时预计 2023-24 年地区增长率将超过 5%。

The downward revisions are broad-based and reflect Covid-related disruptions and protracted weakness in the real estate sector in China and weaker-than-expected goods export growth across the region.

向下修正的范围广泛，反映出新冠疫情相关的中断和中国房地产行业的长期疲软，以及整个地区的商品出口增长弱于预期。

Inflation is also expected to ease somewhat after peaking in 2022.

预计通胀在 2022 年达到顶峰后也会有所缓解。

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues, and the world's major economic engines sputter.

与此同时，路透社报道称，世界银行周二将其 2023 年的增长预测下调至许多国家处于衰退边缘的水平，原因是央行加息的影响加剧，俄罗斯在乌克兰的战争仍在继续，世界主要经济引擎正在停滞不前。

The development lender said it expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3%.

这家开发银行表示，预计 2023 年全球 GDP 增长率为 1.7%，这是自 1993 年以来 2009 年和 2020 年经济衰退之外的最低增速。在 2022 年 6 月发布的上一份全球经济展望报告中，该银行曾预测 2023 年全球增长率为 3%。

It forecast global growth in 2024 to pick up to 2.7% — below the 2.9% estimate for 2022 — and said average growth for the 2020-2024 period would be under 2% — the slowest five-year pace since 1960.

它预测 2024 年全球经济增长率将回升至 2.7%——低于 2022 年 2.9% 的预期——并表示 2020-2024 年期间的平均增长率将低于 2%——这是自 1960 年以来最低的五年增速。