Malaysia’s external trade to expand steadily beyond 2023 with new FTAs — MIDF

MIDF Research expects Malaysia’s external trade activities to expand steadily beyond 2023 amid the impact of new trade agreements, apart from elevated commodity prices and lower monetary rates.

MIDF Research 预计，除了大宗商品价格上涨和货币利率下降之外，在新贸易协定的影响下，马来西亚的对外贸易活动将在 2023 年以后稳步扩大。

In a note on 2nd February, it said the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CTPPP) are also expected to alleviate the external trade performance in 2024.

它在2 月 2 日的一份报告中表示，区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）和跨太平洋伙伴关系全面进步协定（CTPPP）预计也将缓解 2024 年的对外贸易表现。 

“In the post-pandemic era, Malaysia has ratified the RCEP and CPTPP, which came into force on 18th March, 2022 (RCEP), and 29th November, 2022 (CPTPP).

“在大流行后时代，马来西亚批准了 RCEP 和 CPTPP，分别于 2022 年 3 月 18 日（RCEP）和 2022 年 11 月 29 日（CPTPP）生效。 

“As of 2022, RCEP members contributed 58.1% of Malaysia’s total trade, while CPTPP members sponsored 27.5%,” it said.

“截至 2022 年，RCEP 成员贡献了大马贸易总额的 58.1%，而 CPTPP 成员贡献了 27.5%，”它说。

Having these two free trade agreements (FTAs), the research house said Malaysian products are able to penetrate into wider markets and enjoy cheaper imported goods, hence the country’s growth rates would touch +12.1% (exports) and +10.9% (imports) in 2024.

该研究机构表示，有了这两项自由贸易协定（FTA），大马产品能够打入更广阔的市场并享受更便宜的进口商品，因此该国的增长率将达到+12.1%（出口）和+10.9%（进口） 2024.

Besides that, MIDF Research also viewed that the external front is still on a challenging path, with concerns over a global economic slowdown, inflation bite, tightening monetary policy in many countries, and geopolitical risks in Europe and Asia.

除此之外，MIDF Research 还认为，外部战线仍处于充满挑战的道路上，对全球经济放缓、通胀影响、许多国家收紧货币政策以及欧洲和亚洲的地缘政治风险感到担忧。

“We foresee slight moderation in the export growth forecast from +25% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2022 to +9.2% y-o-y in 2023.

“我们预计出口增长预测将从 2022 年同比增长 25% 略微放缓至 2023 年同比增长 9.2%。

“On the bright side, China’s reopening provides a silver lining for global trade flows. Malaysia’s export market can still hold, underpinned by, among others, overseas sales of commodity products with commodity prices remaining elevated, crude palm oil at RM3,500 per tonne, and Brent crude oil at US$94 per barrel for 2023,” it said, adding that it maintained its "neutral" stance on the plantation sector.

“从好的方面来看，中国的重新开放为全球贸易流动带来了一线希望。马来西亚的出口市场仍然可以保持，其中包括商品价格保持高位的商品海外销售，2023年毛棕榈油每吨3,500令吉，布伦特原油每桶94美元，”它说，并补充说，它对种植业保持“中立”立场。

 As for imports, it is forecast to grow 9.5% y-o-y, higher than exports, as the research house expects domestic demand to stay sturdy.

至于进口，预计同比增长 9.5%，高于出口，因为该研究机构预计国内需求将保持强劲。

On the plantation sector, MIDF Research anticipated that the palm oil supply tightness situation would likely ease in 2023, on better weather conditions aided by a recovery from the foreign labour shortage in the second half of this year.

在种植业方面，MIDF Research 预计，由于今年下半年外国劳动力短缺的复苏，天气条件有所改善，棕榈油供应紧张的情况可能会在 2023 年得到缓解。 

Meanwhile, it reiterated its "positive" call for the oil and gas sector, despite an estimated average price of US$92 per barrel of Brent crude in 2023, compared with US$98 per barrel last year, due to risks and uncertainties from Russian oil and gas sanctions, US production, and China’s long-term demand.

同时，它重申了对石油和天然气行业的“积极”呼吁，尽管由于俄罗斯石油和天然气制裁、美国生产和中国的长期需求。

“We also maintain a favourable outlook on the semiconductor sector in 2023, due to its ongoing growth potential driven by advanced technologies, and we believe that the recent decline in the tech sector has been overstated, offering opportunities for forward-looking investors to invest in growth stocks,” it said.

“由于半导体行业在先进技术的推动下具有持续的增长潜力，我们也对 2023 年的半导体行业前景保持乐观，我们认为科技行业近期的下滑被夸大了，这为有远见的投资者提供了投资机会成长股，”它说。