Malaysia surprises by lifting key interest rate from all-time low on inflation risk

Malaysia's central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate from an historic low on 11thMay, to cool inflationary pressures as the South-East Asian country continues to recover from the Coivid-19 pandemic.

随着东南亚国家继续从 Coivid-19 大流行中复苏，5 月 11 日马来西亚中央银行出人意料地将基准利率从历史低点上调，以缓解通胀压力。

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised its overnight policy rate to 2% from a record low of 1.75% where it has been since July 2020.

马来西亚国家银行（BNM）将隔夜政策利率从 2020 年 7 月以来的历史低点 1.75% 上调至 2%。

A Reuters poll of 18 economists had largely expected rates to remain unchanged, with the central bank likely to start tightening next quarter to avert rising inflationary pressures. Only four of the economists had forecast a rate hike.

路透社对 18 位经济学家的调查在很大程度上预计利率将保持不变，央行可能在下个季度开始收紧政策，以避免通胀压力上升。只有四位经济学家预测加息。

The central bank said the latest indicators showed that economic growth was on a firmer footing and that the unprecedented conditions during the pandemic that necessitated the easing of rates have since abated.

央行表示，最新指标显示经济增长基础更加稳固，大流行期间需要放宽利率的前所未有的条件已经减弱。

"The inflation outlook continues to be subject to global commodity price developments, arising mainly from the ongoing military conflict in Ukraine and prolonged supply-related disruptions, as well as domestic policy measures on administered prices," the central bank said.

“通胀前景继续受到全球大宗商品价格走势的影响，这主要是由于乌克兰持续的军事冲突和与供应相关的长期中断，以及国内管理价格的政策措施，”央行表示。

It added, however, that upward pressure on prices would partly be contained by existing government price controls and spare capacity in the economy. Headline inflation was projected to average between 2.2% - 3.2% this year, unchanged from its earlier estimate.

然而，它补充说，现有的政府价格控制和经济中的闲置产能将部分遏制价格上涨压力。今年总体通胀率预计平均在 2.2% 至 3.2% 之间，与之前的估计持平。

Capital Economics' Asia economist Alex Holmes said BNM's rate hike, while sooner than expected, should not be taken as a signal of aggressive tightening.

凯投宏观的亚洲经济学家亚历克斯霍尔姆斯表示，国行加息虽然比预期的要早，但不应被视为激进收紧政策的信号。

"While the economy should continue to recover in the coming quarters, there is still a long way to go," he said in a note.

“虽然未来几个季度经济应该会继续复苏，但仍有很长的路要走，”他在一份报告中说。

Holmes expects two more rate hikes of 25 basis points each, spaced over the rest of the year, with another at the start of 2023.

Holmes 预计将在今年剩余时间内再加息两次，每次 25 个基点，另一次将在 2023 年初进行。

OCBC Bank economist Wellian Wiranto expects BNM's next hike to come in September, allowing the central bank "space to gauge whether upside risk to inflation or downside risk to growth will be the greater foe, before deciding on whether to hike further from there."

华侨银行经济学家 Wellian Wiranto 预计，国行下次加息将在 9 月进行，让央行“在决定是否进一步加息之前，有空间衡量通胀的上行风险还是增长的下行风险将是更大的敌人。

The ringgit rose 0.1% while Malaysian share index rose as much as 0.3% after the rate hike.

加息后，令吉升 0.1%，而大马股指则升幅高达 0.3%。

Malaysia's economic growth likely gathered pace in the last quarter, driven by stronger demand following a relaxation of Covid-19 measures, but a prolonged slowdown in China could have significant knock-on effects, according to a Reuters poll published on 11th May.

5月11日公布的一项路透社民意调查显示，由于放松 Covid-19 措施后需求强劲，马来西亚的经济增长可能在上个季度加快步伐，但中国经济长期放缓可能会产生重大的连锁反应。

Stronger exports, which bodes well for domestic manufacturers, suggests foreign trade remains a growth engine for Malaysia which can also expect rising demand for its palm oil after top producer Indonesia temporarily banned shipments last month to tame soaring domestic cooking oil prices.

强劲的出口对国内制造商来说是个好兆头，这表明外贸仍然是马来西亚的增长引擎，在最大的生产国印度尼西亚上个月暂时禁止出货以抑制国内食用油价格飙升之后，预计对其棕榈油的需求也会增加。

Bank Negara trimmed its 2022 economic growth forecast in March to between 5.3%-6.3%, noting that the country's recovery will be slightly offset by the expected impact of the Russia-Ukraine war.

国家银行在 3 月份将其 2022 年经济增长预测下调至 5.3%-6.3% 之间，并指出该国的复苏将被俄乌战争的预期影响略微抵消。

Malaysia's economy returned to growth in the October-December quarter, expanding 3.6% from a year earlier, with the central bank expecting the rebound to continue this year despite risks of further disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

马来西亚经济在 10 月至 12 月季度恢复增长，同比增长 3.6%，尽管存在冠状病毒大流行造成进一步破坏的风险，但央行预计今年将继续反弹。