Malaysia exposed to downside risks in near term despite rebound in GDP, says S&P
Despite economic growth rebounding in the first quarter 2022, Malaysia is exposed to a number of downside risks in the near-term, particularly with China being its largest export market, accounting for 15% of total exports, S&P Global Market Intelligence highlighted.
尽管 2022 年第一季度经济增长反弹，但马来西亚在短期内面临许多下行风险，特别是中国是其最大的出口市场，占总出口的 15%，标准普尔全球市场情报突出显示。
It said the country’s export sector is “vulnerable” to the impact of China’s economic slowdown.
报告称，该国的出口部门“易受”中国经济放缓的影响。
“Malaysia also faces some transmission effects from the Russia-Ukraine war. Although direct exports to Russia are very low, a more significant vulnerability is from the negative economic shock of the Russia-Ukraine war on the economies of Western Europe, since the EU accounts for 8.4% of Malaysia’s merchandise exports,” S&P Global Asia-Pacific chief economist Rajiv Biswas said in a note on 20th May.
“马来西亚也面临俄乌战争的一些传播效应。尽管对俄罗斯的直接出口非常低，但更严重的脆弱性来自俄罗斯-乌克兰战争对西欧经济的负面经济冲击，因为欧盟占马来西亚商品出口的 8.4%，”S&P Global Asia-Pacific首席经济学家 Rajiv Biswas 在5 月 20 日的一份报告中表示。
“However, higher world oil and gas prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war are also boosting Malaysian energy exports and contributing to higher fiscal revenues. Malaysia is also benefiting from higher palm oil prices, due to disruptions to world edible oil markets, including Ukrainian exports of sunflower oil,” he said.
“然而，由于俄罗斯-乌克兰战争导致的世界石油和天然气价格上涨，也促进了马来西亚的能源出口，并为更高的财政收入做出了贡献。由于世界食用油市场的中断，包括乌克兰向日葵油的出口，马来西亚也受益于棕榈油价格上涨，”他说。
Rajiv noted that Malaysia is also benefiting from its large E&E export industry, due to very strong global demand for electronics equipment.
Rajiv指出，由于全球对电子设备的需求非常强劲，马来西亚也受益于其庞大的电子电气出口行业。
The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the pace of digital transformation with the global shift to working remotely, boosting demand for electronic devices such as computers, printers and mobile phones, he said.
他说，随着全球向远程工作的转变，Covid-19 大流行的影响加快了数字化转型的步伐，推动了对计算机、打印机和手机等电子设备的需求。
In addition, the easing of lockdowns in many countries has also triggered a rebound in consumer spending, helping to boost demand for a wide range of consumer electronics.
此外，许多国家放松封锁也引发了消费者支出的反弹，有助于提振对各种消费电子产品的需求。
“The medium-term economic outlook is also supportive of Malaysia’s electronics industry. The outlook for electronics demand is underpinned by major technological developments, including 5G rollout over the next five years, which will drive demand for 5G mobile phones.
“中期经济前景也支持马来西亚的电子行业。电子产品需求前景受到重大技术发展的支撑，包括未来五年推出的 5G，这将推动对 5G 手机的需求。
“Demand for industrial electronics is also expected to grow rapidly over the medium term, helped by Industry 4.0, as industrial automation and the Internet of Things boosts rapid growth in demand for industrial electronics,” Rajiv said.
“在工业 4.0 的帮助下，随着工业自动化和物联网推动工业电子需求的快速增长，预计工业电子需求在中期内也将快速增长，”Rajiv 说。
He said Malaysia’s competitiveness as a global electronics hub was highlighted by Intel’s decision to invest US$7 billion in a new semiconductor packaging plant in Penang, which is estimated to be completed by 2024.
他说，英特尔决定投资 70 亿美元在槟城兴建一座新的半导体封装厂，估计将于 2024 年完工，突显了马来西亚作为全球电子中心的竞争力。
The Malaysian economy continues to recover from the protracted impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, with gross domestic product in the first quarter of 2022 up 5.0% year-on-year (yoy).
马来西亚经济继续从 Covid-19 大流行的长期影响中复苏，2022 年第一季度的国内生产总值同比增长 5.0%。
Easing of Covid-19 restrictions during early 2022 helped underpin a recovery in private consumption, while strong external demand supported buoyant growth in exports.
2022 年初放宽 Covid-19 限制有助于支撑私人消费的复苏，而强劲的外部需求支持出口的强劲增长。
Despite the upturn in world commodity prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war, Malaysian CPI inflation pressures remain contained, with the March CPI reading up only 2.2% yoy, while core CPI inflation rose by 2.0% yoy.
尽管世界大宗商品价格因俄乌战争而回升，但马来西亚 CPI 通胀压力依然受到控制，3 月份 CPI 同比仅上涨 2.2%，而核心 CPI 通胀同比上涨 2.0%。