Malaysia 2022 export, import growth forecast at 16.9% and 19.2% – MIDF

MIDF Research has maintained its projection for exports and imports to grow at 16.9% and 19.2%, respectively, following the release of Malaysia’s May 2022 trade figures.

在马来西亚 2022 年 5 月的贸易数据发布后，MIDF Research 维持其对出口和进口分别增长 16.9% 和 19.2% 的预测。

It said Malaysia’s total trade expanded by 33.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to RM228.4 billion in May, driven by an acceleration in both exports and imports while cumulatively, total trade rose to RM1.09 trillion in the first five months this year, touching the RM1 trillion mark faster than last year on the back of robust external demand and high commodity prices.

它表示，受进出口双双加速推动，马来西亚 5 月份的贸易总额同比增长 33.6% 至 2284 亿令吉，而前五年累计贸易总额上升至 1.09 万亿令吉在强劲的外部需求和高商品价格的背景下，今年几个月，比去年更快地触及 1 万亿令吉大关。

Exports grew faster at 30.5% y-o-y in May 2022 against 20.8% in the preceding month. Performance was higher than the research house’s estimates supported by increased shipments to regional countries and stronger re-exports, it said in a note today.

2022年5月，出口增长较快，同比增长30.5%，而前一个月为20.8%。它在今天的一份报告中表示，由于对地区国家的出货量增加和再出口强劲，业绩高于该研究机构的估计。

“Robust expansion in shipments of electrical and electronic (E&E) and commodities, particularly palm oil and petroleum products, also contributed to stronger exports growth.

“电气和电子 (E&E) 和大宗商品，特别是棕榈油和石油产品的出货量强劲增长，也促进了出口增长。

“Meanwhile, imports growth grew even faster at 37.3% y-o-y in May 2022 versus the previous month’s 22.1% on the back of continued improvement in domestic economic activities and high commodity prices,” MIDF said.

“与此同时，由于国内经济活动持续改善和大宗商品价格高企，2022 年 5 月进口同比增长 37.3%，高于上个月的 22.1%，”MIDF 表示。

However, the research firm noted that the trade surplus for May 2022 shrank to the lowest since May 2020, declining to RM12.6 billion versus RM23.5 billion in April 2022, due to lower exports and higher imports.

然而，该研究公司指出，由于出口减少和进口增加，2022 年 5 月的贸易顺差降至 2020 年 5 月以来的最低水平，从 2022 年 4 月的 235 亿令吉降至 126 亿令吉。

By destination, MIDF Research said increased exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), which rose 44.2% y-o-y, were the major contributor to the stronger exports in May 2022 on strong demand for E&E and petroleum products.

MIDF Research 表示，按目的地划分，对东南亚国家联盟（东盟）的出口增加，同比增长 44.2%，是 2022 年 5 月出口强劲的主要原因，原因是对电子电气产品和石油产品的强劲需求。

In contrast, exports to other major destinations such as China, the United States (US) and European Union (EU) continued to grow robustly at a double-digit pace, albeit relatively slower than April 2022, it said.

相比之下，对中国、美国（US）和欧盟（EU）等其他主要目的地的出口继续以两位数的速度强劲增长，尽管增速相对低于 2022 年 4 月。

On a sectoral basis, manufacturing and agriculture exports rose in May, while the rise in mining exports was more moderate than the previous month.

从部门来看，5月份制造业和农业出口有所增长，而矿业出口的增幅比上月温和。

Sustained growth in manufacturing exports (May 2022: 27.3%) was supported by stronger shipments of E&E and machinery, equipment and parts, and a rebound in exports of petroleum products, the research house said.

该研究机构表示，制造业出口的持续增长（2022 年 5 月：27.3%）得益于电子电气和机械、设备和零部件的强劲出货量以及石油产品出口的反弹。

“Agricultural goods exports also expanded stronger by 43.9 % y-o-y, reflective of the robust palm oil exports. Mining exports, on the other hand, recorded strong but moderate growth of 54.9% y-o-y from 64.4% y-o-y in April, backed by sustained growth in external demand for liquefied natural gas and crude petroleum,” MIDF Research said.

“农产品出口也同比增长 43.9%，反映出棕榈油出口强劲。另一方面，在液化天然气和原油的外部需求持续增长的支持下，矿业出口录得强劲但温和的同比增长，从 4 月份的 64.4% 同比增长 54.9%，”MIDF Research 表示。

However, the research house emphasised that although May saw robust trade, this was due to a lower base in 2020.

然而，该研究机构强调，尽管 5 月份的交易强劲，但这是由于 2020 年的基数较低。

On the external front, the effects of war in Ukraine, high commodity prices and rising inflation on global demand remained a concern and the slowdown in China was another downside risk, given the renewed surge in COVID-19 infections and the negative effect of strict lockdowns.

在外部方面，乌克兰战争、大宗商品价格高企和通胀上升对全球需求的影响仍然令人担忧，鉴于 COVID-19 感染再次激增以及严格封锁的负面影响，中国经济放缓是另一个下行风险.

“Overall, we expected continued demand for E&E products and commodities such as palm oil and petroleum to support exports in the coming months.

“总体而言，我们预计未来几个月对电子电气产品和棕榈油和石油等商品的持续需求将支持出口。

“Imports growth will be sustained as consumers continue to increase spending on the back of the economic reopening. Business spending will also increase in anticipation of improving demand, and the positive impacts from further COVID-19 relaxation,” it added.

“随着经济重新开放，消费者继续增加支出，进口增长将持续。由于预期需求改善以及 COVID-19 进一步放松带来的积极影响，企业支出也将增加，”它补充道。