Indonesia's DMO u-turn positive for CPO price

Indonesia’s u-turn on its domestic market obligation (DMO) will likely cause a sharp decline in its palm oil exports in the next couple of months.

印度尼西亚对其国内市场义务（DMO）的转变可能会导致其棕榈油出口在未来几个月内急剧下降。

It could also result in a wider gap between Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil prices due to the hefty tax difference, said Public Investment Bank.

公共投资银行表示，由于税收差异巨大，这也可能导致马来西亚和印度尼西亚棕榈油价格之间的差距扩大。

In a note dated 18 March, it said the move by the Indonesian government is positive for the crude palm oil (CPO) prices as it would result in tighter global palm oil supplies, thus it maintained its ‘overweight’ call on the plantation sector.

在3月18日的一份报告中，它表示，印尼政府的举动对毛棕榈油（CPO）价格有利，因为这将导致全球棕榈油供应收紧，因此它维持了对种植业的"增持"呼吁。

On 17 March, the Indonesian government announced that it plans to scrap the DMO policy on palm oil exports and replace it with export duty hikes.

在3月17日印尼政府宣布计划取消DMO关于棕榈油出口的政策，代之以出口关税上调。

The higher CPO export taxes will discourage palm oil producers from exporting their CPO supplies.

较高的CPO出口税将阻止棕榈油生产商出口其CPO供应。

The combined ceiling of palm export tax and levy would be raised from US$375 (US$1=RM4.19) per tonne to between US$575 and US$675 per tonne.

棕榈出口税和征税的总上限将从每吨375美元（1美元=4.19令吉）提高到每吨575美元至675美元之间。

According to Public Investment Bank, based on the current CPO price of RM6,895 per tonne, Indonesian palm oil exporters will be subject to the maximum CPO duty of US$675 per tonne.

根据公共投资银行的数据，根据目前每吨6，895令吉的CPO价格，印度尼西亚棕榈油出口商将承担每吨675美元的最高CPO关税。

 “Following the latest policy, pure upstream players in Indonesia will be the losers due to the hefty export duties, while local refiners are the winners as they have better bargaining power.

"根据最新政策，由于征收高额的出口关税，印度尼西亚的纯上游企业将成为输家，而当地炼油商是赢家，因为他们有更好的议价能力。

“Meanwhile, based on the current CPO price of RM6,895 per tonne, the CPO price differential between Indonesia and Malaysia further widens to US$543 per tonne from US$384 per tonne,”  it said in a note on 18 March.

"与此同时，根据目前每吨6，895令吉的CPO价格，印度尼西亚和马来西亚之间的CPO价格差异进一步扩大至每吨543美元，从每吨384美元，"它在3月18日的一份报告中表示。

Meanwhile, both RHB Research and CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd have maintained their ‘neutral’ call on the sector.

与此同时，RHB Research和CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd都对该行业保持了"中立"的呼吁。

“We understand that the rationale for these changes (the revocation of the DMO) stems from the desire to ensure enough cooking oil is supplied to the domestic market, and to effectively raise global CPO prices.

"我们理解，这些变化（撤销DMO）的理由源于确保向国内市场供应足够的食用油，并有效提高全球CPO价格的愿望。

“We also understand that the difference between the current market price and subsidised bulk cooking oil price will now be subsidised by the Biodiesel Fund,” RHB Research said.

"我们还了解到，当前市场价格与补贴散装食用油价格之间的差异现在将由生物柴油基金补贴，"RHB Research表示。

As bulk cooking oil consumption in Indonesia is around 2.1 million tonnes per year, the subsidy could utilise as much as US$1 billion per year (assuming the subsidy is around IDR6,400 per litre) from the fund, it said.

由于印度尼西亚的散装食用油消费量约为每年210万吨，因此该补贴每年可从该基金获得多达10亿美元（假设补贴约为每升6，400印尼盾）。

CGS-CIMB said Indonesian producers’ ability to benefit from the current high CPO price will be affected by the higher export levy, based on its estimates.

CGS-CIMB表示，根据其估计，印度尼西亚生产商从当前高CPO价格中受益的能力将受到出口税上涨的影响。

“However, this will not significantly affect our financial year 2022/2023-2024 forecast earnings forecasts, which assume CPO price of US$1,146/US$900 per tonne,” it said in a note on 18 March.

"然而，这不会显着影响我们的2022/2023-2024财政年度预测盈利预测，假设CPO价格为每吨1，146美元/ 900美元，"它在3月18日的一份报告中表示。

To recap, Indonesia introduced the DMO last month, requiring its CPO producers to sell 30 per cent of their committed exports of CPO or palm olein to local buyers at a steep discount to cool down the domestic cooking prices amid soaring CPO prices.

回顾一下，印度尼西亚上个月推出了DMO，要求其CPO生产商以大幅折扣向当地买家出售其承诺出口的CPO或棕榈油精的30%，以在CPO价格飙升的情况下冷却国内烹饪价格。

However, after a month, the move seemed to be less effective in bringing down the cooking oil prices as not all plantation players were participating.

然而，一个月后，此举似乎在降低食用油价格方面效果较差，因为并非所有种植园参与者都参与其中。

Distributors were hoarding cooking oils and cooking oil producers need to buy CPO at the market price due to the supply-demand imbalance on DMO CPO.

分销商囤积食用油，由于DMO CPO的供需失衡，食用油生产商需要以市场价格购买CPO。