IATA projects global airline industry to return profitability in 2023

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has projected that the global airline industry would return to profitability in 2023 amid a nearly three-year loss mostly due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

国际航空运输协会（IATA）预计，全球航空业将在 2023 年恢复盈利，此前近三年的亏损主要是由于 COVID-19 大流行。

IATA's director general Willie Walsh said airlines are expected to post US$4.7 billion of net profit, a first since 2019, on the back of US$779 billion revenue despite growing economic uncertainties worldwide.

国际航空运输协会总干事Willie Walsh表示，尽管全球经济不确定性日益增加，但航空公司预计将实现47亿美元的净利润，这是自2019年以来的首次，因为其收入为7790亿美元。

"Despite the economic uncertainties, there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about 2023."

“尽管经济存在不确定性，但仍有很多理由对2023年持乐观态度。

"Lower oil price inflation and continuing pent-up demand should help to keep costs in check as the strong growth trend continues," Walsh said at IATA's Global Media Day.

“随着强劲增长趋势的持续，较低的油价通胀和持续被压抑的需求应该有助于控制成本，”沃尔什在国际航空运输协会全球媒体日表示。

Passenger revenue would mainly drive profitability next year as it is expected to generate US522 billion with 4.2 billion travellers flying, the first time that the number would surpass the four billion mark since 2019.

客运收入将主要推动明年的盈利能力，因为预计明年将产生5220亿美元，42亿旅客飞行，这是自2019年以来这一数字首次超过40亿大关。

Walsh said the forecast for global passenger demand is 85.5 % of 2019 levels while the projected revenue and demand take into account the uncertainties of China's zero Covid policies that constrains domestic and international markets.

Walsh表示，对全球客运需求的预测是2019年水平的85.5%，而预计的收入和需求考虑到中国限制国内和国际市场的零新冠政策的不确定性。

However, air cargo demand in 2023 is expected to decrease with volumes lowering to 57.7 million tonnes from a peak of 65.6 million tonnes in 2021.

然而，预计2023年的航空货运需求将下降，货运量将从2021年的峰值6560万吨降至5770万吨。

Cargo revenues would possible be US$149.4 billion, less US$52 billion than in 2022 but higher than 2019.

货运收入可能为1494亿美元，比2022年少520亿美元，但高于2019年。

"As belly capacity grows in line with the recovery in passenger markets, yields are expected to take a significant step back. IATA expects a fall of 22.6 % in cargo yields, mostly in the latter part of the year when the impact of inflation-cooling measures are expected to bite," Walsh said.

“随着客运市场的复苏，腹舱运力的增长，预计收益率将大幅下降。国际航空运输协会预计货运收益率将下降22.6%，主要是在今年下半年，届时通胀降温措施的影响预计将产生影响，“Walsh说。

On overall airline costs, he said it would grow by 5.3 % to US$776 billion with cost pressures coming from labour, skill and capacity shortages as well as infrastructure costs.

在整体航空公司成本方面，他表示，由于劳动力，技能和运力短缺以及基础设施成本的成本压力，它将增长5.3%至7760亿美元。

The total fuel spend in 2023 is expected to be US$229 billion, which makes up 30 % of airline expenses.

预计2023年燃料总支出为2290亿美元，占航空公司支出的30%。

IATA forecasted that jet kerosene would average US$111.9 per barrel, down from US$138.8 a barrel in 2022, while Brent crude would likely be at US$92.3 a barrel.

国际航空运输协会（IATA）预测，喷气煤油的平均价格为每桶111.9美元，低于2022年的每桶138.8美元，而布伦特原油的价格可能为每桶92.3美元。

Two of the biggest expenses for an airline are fuel and salary.

航空公司最大的两项开支是燃料和工资。

Walsh said risks in the airline industry such as interest rate hikes, which could see some economies falling into recession, as well as the prolongation of China's lockdown remains.

Walsh表示，航空业的风险，如加息，可能导致一些经济体陷入衰退，以及中国封锁的长期存在。

He added that proposals for increased infrastructure charges or taxes to support sustainability efforts could also affect the industry's overall profitability in 2023.

他补充说，增加基础设施收费或税收以支持可持续发展工作的提议也可能影响该行业在2023年的整体盈利能力。

The job of airline managements will remain challenging, he said, as careful watch on economic uncertainties will be critical.

他说，航空公司管理层的工作仍将充满挑战，因为仔细观察经济不确定性至关重要。

"Airline profitability is razor thin. Each passenger carried is expected to contribute on average just US$1.11 to the industry's net profit. In most parts of the world that's far less than what is needed to buy a cup of coffee," Walsh said.

 “航空公司的盈利能力微薄。预计每名乘客平均仅为该行业的净利润贡献1.11美元。在世界大部分地区，这远远低于购买一杯咖啡所需的价格，“Walsh说。

He added that the good news is that airlines have built flexibility into their business models so they could handle the economic accelerations and decelerations impacting demand.

他补充说，好消息是航空公司已经在其商业模式中建立了灵活性，因此他们可以应对影响需求的经济加速和减速。

Meanwhile, the global airline sector is expected to see a lower net loss of US$6.9 billion in 2022 from US$9.7 billion projected by IATA in June this year.

与此同时，全球航空业预计2022年的净亏损将从国际航空运输协会今年6月预测的97亿美元减少至69亿美元。

The decrease in net loss is expected by strengthened passenger yields by up to 8.4 % and US$727 billion in overall revenues.

预计净亏损将减少，客运收益将提高8.4%，总收入将达到7,270亿美元。

Asia Pacific airlines are projected to record a loss of US$10 billion this year while in 2023 the loss would narrow to US$6.6 billion.

预计亚太航空公司今年将录得100亿美元的亏损，而到2023年，这一损失将收窄至66亿美元。

The region's passenger demand growth of 59.8 % are expected to outpace capacity growth of 47.8 % in 2023.

预计该地区59.8%的客运需求增长将在2023年超过47.8%的运力增长。

"Asia Pacific is critically held back by the impact of China's zero Covid policies on travel and the region's losses are skewed by the performance of China's airlines who face the full impact of this policy in both domestic and international markets," Walsh said.

Wals说：“亚太地区受到中国零疫情政策对旅行的影响的严重阻碍，该地区的损失受到中国航空公司业绩的扭曲，这些航空公司在国内和国际市场上都面临着这一政策的全面影响。

He added that taking a conservative view of progressing easing of restrictions in China over the second half of 2023, IATA expects strong pent-up passenger demand and a significant boost from profitable air cargo markets.

他补充说，从2023年下半年中国逐步放宽限制的保守观点来看，国际航空运输协会预计被压抑的客运需求强劲，有利可图的航空货运市场将带来重大提振。