Growth in Asia expected to slow down in 2022, 2023: IMF

Growth in the Asia and Pacific region is expected to slow down in 2022 and 2023 as the region is facing three formidable headwinds “which may prove to be persistent”, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

据国际货币基金组织（IMF）称，由于该地区面临“可能会持续存在”的三大逆风，预计亚太地区的增长将在 2022 年和 2023 年放缓。

The major financial agency of the United Nations headquartered in Washington listed the three headwinds as global financial tightening, the war in Ukraine, and the sharp and uncharacteristic slowdown of the Chinese economy.

总部设在华盛顿的联合国主要金融机构将全球金融紧缩、乌克兰战争和中国经济异常急剧放缓列为三大逆风。

This challenging conjuncture poses difficult trade-offs for policymakers, it said.

它说，这种具有挑战性的时刻给政策制定者带来了艰难的权衡。

“Asia’s strong economic rebound early this year is losing momentum, with a weaker-than-expected second quarter,” said director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Krishna Srinivasan, at a hybrid press conference on the release of “The Regional Economic Outlook, Asia and Pacific: Sailing into Headwinds” report here on 28thOctober.

国际货币基金组织亚太部主任Krishna Srinivasan10月28日在发布《亚太地区经济展望：逆风而行》报告的新闻发布会上表示：“今年年初亚洲强劲的经济反弹正在失去动力，第二季度的表现弱于预期。”

“We have cut growth forecasts for Asia and the Pacific to 4.0% this year and 4.3% next year, down by 0.9 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, compared to the April World Economic Outlook, which are well below the 5.5 % average over the last two decades,” he said.

“我们已将亚太地区今年和明年的增长预测分别下调至 4.0% 和 4.3%，与 4 月份的《世界经济展望》相比，分别下调了 0.9 和 0.8 个百分点，远低于过去的二十年5.5%的平均水平。” 他说。

According to the IMF, while inflation rose more modestly in Asia during 2021 than it did in other regions, the sharp bout of volatility in global commodity markets after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February put additional pressure on Asia’s headline inflation in the first half of 2022.

根据国际货币基金组织的数据，虽然 2021 年亚洲的通货膨胀率比其他地区的上升幅度要小，但在 2 月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后全球大宗商品市场的剧烈波动给 2022 年上半年亚洲的总体通货膨胀带来了额外压力.

This increase has been driven by rising food and fuel prices - particularly in Asian emerging markets and developing economies - but also reflects higher core inflation as the region recovers, it said.

报告称，这一增长是由食品和燃料价格上涨推动的—尤其是在亚洲新兴市场和发展中经济体—但也反映了随着该地区的复苏，核心通胀率上升。

Against this backdrop, Srinivasan stressed several priorities for policymakers with one of them being “further tightening of monetary policy will be required to ensure that inflation returns to target and inflation expectations remain well anchored”.

在这种背景下，Srinivasan强调了政策制定者的几个优先事项，其中之一是“需要进一步收紧货币政策，以确保通胀回到目标水平，通胀预期保持良好稳定”。

Srinivasan said fiscal consolidation is needed to stabilise public debt and support the monetary policy stance. Asia is now the largest debtor in the world besides being the biggest saver, and several countries are at high risk of debt distress.

Srinivasan表示，为了稳定公共债务和支持货币政策立场，需要进行财政整顿。亚洲现在是世界上最大的债务国，也是最大的储蓄国，一些国家面临债务危机的高风险。

“Public and private debt dynamics are already worse following the pandemic because of slower growth and higher debt levels. Depreciations and rising interest rates could expose financial vulnerabilities from high leverage and unhedged balance sheets and further raise public debt ratios.

“大流行过后，由于增长放缓和债务水平上升，公共和私人债务状况已经变得更糟。货币贬值和利率上升可能暴露高杠杆率和未对冲资产负债表带来的金融脆弱性，并进一步提高公共债务比率。

“As interest rates rise, this will raise the fiscal balance needed to stabilise debt. An integrated approach to tackling these challenges in a timely and well-calibrated way is of the essence while being mindful of further downside risks,” he said.

“随着利率上升，这将提高稳定债务所需的财政平衡。在考虑进一步下行风险的同时，及时、准确地采取综合措施应对这些挑战至关重要。”

To a question on the need for Malaysia to aggressively increase the policy rate to narrow the differential with the US, IMF’s Division Chief of Regional Studies, Asia and Pacific Department, Shanaka Peiris noted that “Bank Negara Malaysia has moved quite fast even before inflation went up above the target bands”.

在被问及马来西亚是否需要大幅提高政策利率，以缩小与美国的差距时，国际货币基金组织亚太部地区研究部门负责人Shanaka Peiris指出，“马来西亚央行在通胀上升到目标区间以上之前就已经采取了相当快的行动”。

“Given the persistence of core inflation and some other factors we are seeing, you would expect many other countries in the region to stay on the course to bring down inflation to below target by 2024 as we project at the moment.”

“考虑到核心通胀的持续和我们正在看到的其他一些因素，你可以预期，该地区的许多其他国家将坚持到2024年将通胀降至低于我们目前预计的目标水平。