Fallout from war, inflation hit the ringgit and Bursa Malaysia in 2022

At the beginning of 2022, the outlook for both the ringgit and Bursa Malaysia looked promising as pandemic threats had shrunk.

2022年初，令吉和马来西亚交易所的前景看起来都很有希望，因为大流行的威胁已经缩小。

The local currency stood at RM4.1715 to the US dollar while the benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) was at 1,549.05 when the new year's first trading day (Jan 3) ended.

当地货币兑美元为4.1715令吉，而基准富时马来西亚交易所KLCI（FBM KLCI）在新年第一个交易日（1月3日）结束时为1,549.05。

Even with the emergence of the war in Ukraine in late February, the ringgit and local bourse continued to thrive until the markets upended as United States (US) policy-tightening headlines propped the greenback.

即使乌克兰战争在 2 月下旬出现，令吉和当地交易所仍继续蓬勃发展，直到市场因美国收紧政策的头条新闻支撑美元而出现颠覆。

The responses to external shocks were broadly in line with the situation abroad, which saw capital flights occurring globally.

对外部冲击的反应与国外的情况大体一致，即资本外逃发生在全球范围内。

When Inflation Is Catastrophic

当通货膨胀是灾难性的

The ringgit fell to a historic low of RM4.7465 against the US dollar on 4th November  2022, as inflation started to cut a swathe across the globe and at home.

令吉兑美元在 2022 年 11 月 4 日跌至历史低点 RM4.7465，因为通货膨胀开始在全球和国内大幅削减。

This was its worst level since the currency recorded RM4.7125 on Jan 9, 1998, as a result of the Asian financial crisis. The pound, euro, and yen were among the major currencies also hitting fresh all-time lows.

这是自1998年1月9日亚洲金融危机导致该货币录得4.7125令吉以来的最差水平。英镑、欧元和日元等主要货币也创下历史新低。

The biggest currency market rout has put pressure on central banks to hike rates as prices surged, including in Malaysia.

最大的货币市场溃败给各国央行带来了加息的压力，因为价格飙升，包括马来西亚。

Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd chief economist Firdaos Rosli said that aside from being hit by bets on further rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in its bid to tame inflation, the local note has been pressured by the widening interest rate differential between the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and Overnight Policy Rate (OPR).

马来西亚伊斯兰银行（Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd）首席经济学家Firdaos Rosli表示，除了受到美联储（Fed）为抑制通胀而进一步加息的押注的打击外，当地票据还受到联邦基金利率（FFR）和隔夜政策利率（OPR）之间不断扩大的利差的压力。

The Fed has raised its policy rate by 425 basis points (bps) since March this year compared with a 100-bps increase in the OPR.

自今年 3 月以来，美联储已将政策利率上调了 425 个基点 （bps），而 OPR 上调了 100 个基点。

This scenario has resulted in the FFR range, now at 4.25 - 4.50 %, being higher than the OPR at 2.75 % thus far; and the Fed remains committed to reining in inflation, which has stayed elevated despite easing since July 2022.

这种情况导致FFR区间目前为4.25-4.50%，高于迄今为止的2.75%的OPR; 美联储仍然致力于控制通胀，尽管自 2022 年 7 月以来有所放松，但通胀一直居高不下。

Firdaos said the reduced foreign portfolio investments into Malaysia of late have put the ringgit under pressure as well.

Firdaos表示，最近对马来西亚的外国证券投资减少也给令吉带来了压力。

Foreign funds flows were negative from September to November 2022 in both the bond and equity markets.

2022 年 9 月至 11 月，债券和股票市场的外国资金流动均为负值。

He said although the foreign funds flow into equities for the first 11 months of 2022 was positive at RM5.68 billion, foreign investors sold their Malaysian bond holdings worth RM12.35 billion during the period.

他说，尽管2022年前11个月流入股票的外国资金为正值，为56.8亿令吉，但外国投资者在此期间出售了价值123.5亿令吉的马来西亚债券。

''Currencies of emerging countries will continue to be under pressure as the Fed has yet to indicate its desire to pivot as long as US inflation continues to trend way above its 2.00 % target rate,'' he told Bernama.

“新兴国家的货币将继续面临压力，因为只要美国通胀率继续高于其2.00%的目标利率，美联储尚未表示希望转向，”他告诉Bernama。

Year to date, the ringgit has lost 6.0 % of its value against the US dollar, while Bursa Malaysia was 4.8 % down as of 23rd December, 2022.

年初至今，令吉兑美元贬值6.0%，而截至2022年12月23日，马来西亚交易所下跌4.8%。

Nevertheless, he reckoned that the ringgit has recovered some losses since the second week of November 2022. Hence he said, the local unit could end the year within the range of RM4.46 - RM4.49 against the greenback.

尽管如此，他认为令吉自 2022 年 11 月第二周以来已经收复了一些损失。因此，他说，当地单位可能会在年底对美元汇率在4.46令吉至4.49令吉的范围内。

Not All Doom and Gloom   

不是所有的厄运和阴霾 

Citing the ringgit's performance as of 19th December, Firdaos said that while the ringgit had depreciated against the Hong Kong dollar (-6.1 %), Singapore dollar (-5.4 %), and Thai baht (-1.4 %), it had strengthened against other major currencies such as the euro (0.9 %), Chinese yuan (3.4 %), British pound (4.9 %) and Japanese yen (11.9 %).

Firdaos引用令吉截至12月19日的表现时表示，虽然令吉兑港元（-6.1%）、新加坡元（-5.4%）和泰铢（-1.4%）贬值，但对欧元（0.9%）、人民币（3.4%）、英镑（4.9%）和日元（11.9%）等其他主要货币已经走强。

''We see a similar trend with other currency pairs such as the Australian dollar (2.1 %), Indonesian rupiah (3.0 %), South Korean won (3.1 %) and Indian rupee (4.4 %)," he said.

“我们看到其他货币对也有类似的趋势，如澳元（2.1%），印度尼西亚盾（3.0%），韩元（3.1%）和印度卢比（4.4%），”他说。

Firdaos also said that the weaker ringgit could be a catalyst for boosting Malaysia's net export growth as import growth decelerates.

Firdaos还表示，随着进口增长减速，令吉疲软可能成为推动马来西亚净出口增长的催化剂。

On a year-on-year basis, export growth caught up with import growth for the first time this year in November 2022 (both up by 15.6 %), suggesting favourable trade balance growth in the immediate term.

与去年同期相比，出口增长于2022年11月首次赶上今年的进口增长（均增长15.6%），表明短期内贸易平衡增长有利。

He said this could lend support to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2022 and, subsequently, full-year 2022, for which he forecast an 8.1 % growth.

他表示，这可能会为2022年第四季度以及随后的2022年全年国内生产总值（GDP）提供支持，他预计全年将增长8.1%。

''We are penciling in Malaysia's GDP growth to come in at 4.5 % in 2023, and 4.7 % in 2024.

“我们预计马来西亚的GDP增长率将在2023年达到4.5%，到2024年达到4.7%。

''Should the reopening of China's economy intensify, it could give the necessary buffer for the positive outlook of the ringgit for the end of this year,'' he noted.

“如果中国经济的重新开放加剧，它可以为今年年底令吉的积极前景提供必要的缓冲，”他指出。

Meanwhile, he reckoned that the FBM KLCI could end 2022 at around the 1,560 level.

同时，他认为FBM KLCI可能会在2022年结束时达到1,560左右的水平。

The country also saw a smooth government transition led by 10th Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim after the 15th general election.

在第15届大选后，该国还经历了由第10任首相Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim领导的平稳政府过渡。

The unity government, a broad coalition government consisting of various political parties, was formed as a result of a hung Parliament, a first in the history of the country.

团结政府是一个由各个政党组成的广泛的联合政府，是悬而未决的议会的结果，这是该国历史上的第一次。

In the long term, a coalition government could mean more consultative policies and more checks and balances, which would be market positive, he added.

他补充说，从长远来看，联合政府可能意味着更多的协商政策和更多的制衡，这将是积极的市场。

2023 Outlook

2023年展望

Juwai IQI chief economist Shan Saeed projected that the ringgit will maintain its structural stability in 2023 as the US dollar goes into depreciation mode.

Juwai IQI首席经济学家Shan Saeed预计，随着美元进入贬值模式，令吉将在2023年保持结构稳定。

''The ringgit should be between RM4.10 and RM4.37 in 2023 based on the premise that higher oil prices, economic stability and, above all, depreciating US dollar come back into the market.

“2023年令吉应该在4.10令吉至4.37令吉之间，前提是油价上涨、经济稳定以及最重要的是美元贬值重新进入市场。

''We at Juwai IQI expect the local unit to be one of the top currencies, along with the Vietnamese dong, Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht, Brazilian real, South African rand, and Philippine peso in 2023 as the Fed commences quantitative easing (QE5) with lowering rates by October/November 2023 as the US economy goes into severe L-shaped deep recession,'' Shan explained.

“Juwai IQI预计，随着美国经济陷入严重的L型深度衰退，美联储开始量化宽松（QE5），到2023年10月/ 11月降息，当地单位将成为顶级货币之一，还有越南盾、印度尼西亚盾、泰铢、巴西雷亚尔、南非兰特和菲律宾比索，“Shan解释道。

He said the ringgit has been appreciating 8.14 % in the last five weeks against the US dollar.

他表示，令吉兑美元在过去五周内升值8.14%。

Meanwhile, CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd expected the FBM KLCI to gain eight % to end 2023 at 1,633 amid the potential return of foreign funds, merger and acquisition activities, and clarity on the new government policies.

与此同时，CGS-CIMB Securities Sdn Bhd预计，由于外国资金的潜在回报、并购活动以及政府新政策的明确，FBM KLCI将在2023年底前上涨8%，达到1,633。