Bleaker economy could sour airline industry's bet on cargo planes

The airline industry’s record-breaking scramble to convert older passenger jets to freighters during the travel-starved years of the coronavirus pandemic threatens to bring a glut of cargo space, as a dimming global economic picture hits demand.

随着全球经济形势黯淡打击需求，航空业在旅行匮乏的冠状病毒大流行期间破纪录地争相将旧客机改造成货机，这可能会导致货运空间过剩。

Analysts say aircraft lessors who helped drive a tripling in annual conversions since 2019, now face not only fallout from falling rates for cargo and freighter leases, but could get stuck with excess freighters or be forced to cancel conversions.

分析人士表示，自 2019 年以来帮助推动年度转换量翻了三倍的飞机出租商现在不仅面临货运和货机租赁费率下降的影响，而且可能会因过多的货机而陷入困境或被迫取消转换。

"This surge in conversions has raised some concerns about a bubble," said Chris Seymour, the head of market analysis for aviation advisory group Ascend by Cirium, who fears there could be a slowdown by the middle of the decade.

航空咨询集团 Ascend by Cirium 的市场分析主管Chris Seymour表示：“转换率的激增引发了对泡沫的一些担忧，他担心到本世纪中期可能会出现放缓。

AirAsia, Air Canada, Qantas Airways and Vietnam Airlines are among carriers adding freighters to their fleets in their bids to diversify sources of revenue.

亚洲航空、加拿大航空、澳洲航空和越南航空等航空公司都在为其机队增加货机，以实现收入来源的多元化。

But cargo rates have fallen nearly 40% from December's record, with shipping giant FedEx Corp saying a global demand slowdown is set to worsen after an acceleration at the end of August, clouding the peak year-end shipping season.

但货运费率较去年 12 月的纪录下跌了近 40%，航运巨头联邦快递公司表示，全球需求放缓在 8 月底加速后将进一步恶化，给年末航运旺季蒙上阴影。

The rapid economic downturn and growing pessimism are a swift reversal from pandemic expectations, when falling aircraft values, combined with a surge in cargo demand, drove lessors and airlines to give used planes new life as dedicated freighters.

经济的迅速下滑和日益增长的悲观情绪与大流行的预期迅速逆转，当时飞机价值下降，加上货运需求激增，促使出租人和航空公司将二手飞机作为专用货机赋予新的生命。

A record 192 such conversions are forecast this year, up from 122 last year, itself a record, and 64 in 2019, and will climb higher still to 221 next year, based on current orders, according to data from Cirium.

根据 Cirium 的数据，今年预计此类转换将达到创纪录的 192 次，高于去年的 122 次（其本身是创纪录的）和 2019 年的 64 次，并且根据目前的订单，明年还将攀升至 221 次。

Firms such as Singapore Technologies (ST) Engineering, Swire Pacific’s Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company (HAECO) and planemaker Boeing Co added passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversion capabilities to take up spare capacity at maintenance hangars after many passenger planes were grounded.

在许多客机停飞后，新加坡科技 (ST) Engineering、太古公司的香港飞机工程公司 (HAECO) 和飞机制造商波音公司等公司增加了客货机 (P2F) 转换能力，以占用维修机库的备用容量。

P2F converters are struggling to keep up with the surge in demand, as they expand capacity amid a tight labour market, rising costs and supply chain snarls in the wake of China's on-again, off-again lockdowns.

P2F 转换器正在努力跟上需求的激增，因为它们在劳动力市场紧张、成本上升和中国断断续续的封锁之后供应链混乱的情况下扩大产能。

"We are fully booked until around 2026," said Jeffrey Lam, president of commercial aerospace for ST Engineering. "So, really, for new customers that are coming in now to book slots, they have to book in late 2026 or 2027."

ST Engineering 商业航空总裁 Jeffrey Lam 说：“我们在 2026 年左右之前都已订满。” “所以，真的，对于现在进来预订时段的新客户，他们必须在 2026 年末或 2027 年预订。”

Lessors such as AerCap Holdings, BBAM and Aero Capital Solutions (ACS) have piled in, even, in some cases, booking speculative conversion slots before signing up airline customers.

AerCap Holdings、BBAM 和 Aero Capital Solutions (ACS) 等出租人已经蜂拥而至，在某些情况下，甚至在与航空公司客户签约之前就预订了投机转换时段。

"As aircraft age and airlines think about asset changes, the lessor community has a more vital role or a greater stake in this base of transactions," said Mike Doellefeld, the vice president of Boeing Global Services’ commercial programmes.

波音全球服务商业项目副总裁 Mike Doellefeld 说：“随着飞机时代和航空公司考虑资产变化，出租人社区在这一交易基础中扮演着更重要的角色或更大的股份。”

AerCap declined to comment, while BBAM and ACS did not respond to requests for comment.

AerCap 拒绝置评，而 BBAM 和 ACS 没有回应置评请求。

Even though some airlines have eagerly snapped up freighters, prompted by the strong e-commerce market and the slow return of passenger flights with cargo belly capacity in some regions, analysts wonder how long that trend will last.

尽管一些航空公司急切地抢购了货机，这是由于电子商务市场强劲以及部分地区载客航班的缓慢回归，但分析师们想知道这种趋势会持续多久。

"Particularly in the narrowbody segment, I think the effect is going to be that lease rates are going to drop," said Frederic Horst, managing director of Sydney-based freight consultancy Trade and Transport Group.

悉尼货运咨询公司 Trade and Transport Group 的董事总经理 Frederic Horst 说：“特别是在窄体车领域，我认为租赁费率将会下降。”

"Lessors may be stuck with converted planes."

“出租人可能会被改装的飞机困住。”

Lessors face greater risk than converters, which can fill their hangars with other maintenance work as passenger demand rebounds, Horst added.

Horst 补充说，出租人面临的风险比转产商更大，因为随着乘客需求的反弹，转产商可以用其他维护工作填满他们的机库。

For its part, HAECO is trying to avoid being overexposed to P2F conversions from lessors, said Richard Kendall, its chief operating officer, who saw a drop-off in freighter demand in a couple of years.

港机首席运营官Richard Kendall表示，港机工程正在努力避免过度暴露于出租人的 P2F 转换，他看到几年来货机需求下降。

"We don’t want to see the bubble burst and be caught with broken commitments that we can’t then backfill," he added on the sidelines of the MRO Asia-Pacific conference in Singapore.

他在新加坡举行的 MRO 亚太会议间隙补充说：“我们不希望看到泡沫破灭并陷入无法兑现的破碎承诺。”