Banks' risk-reward profile tilted to upside, says HLIB

Bank Negara Malaysia's (BNM) latest OPR hike by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% allowed banks to gain from a rising interest rate environment as net interest margin (NIM) expanded by 5-6bps while bumping up earnings forecast by 4-5%, according to Hong Leong Investment Bank (HLIB) Research.

马来西亚国家银行（BNM）最近将 OPR 上调 25 个基点（bps）至 2.75%，这使得银行能够从利率上升的环境中获益，因为净息差（NIM）在上涨的同时扩大了 5-6 个基点根据丰隆投资银行 (HLIB) 研究，将盈利预测上调 4-5%。

In a note on 4th November, analyst Chan Jit Hong said that assuming a symmetrical 25bps rate increase for the variable loans and non-current account savings account (CASA) deposits, the big gainers from the OPR hike are Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd and Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd (BIMB) while small gainers include Affin Bank Bhd and Public Bank Bhd.

分析师Chan Jit Hong在11月4日的一份报告中表示，假设可变贷款和非经常账户储蓄账户（CASA）存款对称加息 25 个基点，OPR 上调的最大收益者是 Alliance Bank Malaysia Bhd和Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd（BIMB），而小赢家包括Affin Bank Bhd和Public Bank Bhd。

“Studying the trends of 22nd September‘s OPR hike, the base rate (BR) and lending rate (BLR) increased 25bps respectively, in line with the official 25bps uptick,” said Chan.

“研究 9 月 22 日 OPR 上调的趋势，基准利率 (BR) 和贷款利率 (BLR) 分别上调 25 个基点，与官方上调 25 个基点一致，”Chan 说。

“While for deposits, rates climbed by a similar quantum where one- to 12-month fixed deposits (FD) jumped 21-24bps but savings only ticked up 7bps.”

“而对于存款而言，利率也以类似的幅度攀升，其中 1 至 12 个月的定期存款 (FD) 上涨了 21-24 个基点，但储蓄仅上涨了 7 个基点。”

Meanwhile, the CASA ratio remained high at 31% against pre-pandemic levels of 26%.

同时，与大流行前26%的水平相比，CASA比率保持在31%的高位。

Chan added that Alliance Bank and Maybank saw their CASA ratios escalated up the most, by 10-13 percentage points (ppt) from the fourth quarter of 2019 (4Q2019) to 2Q2022.

Chan 补充说，Alliance Bank 和 Maybank 的 CASA 比率上升幅度最大，从 2019 年第四季度（2019 年第四季度）到 2022 年第二季度上升了 10-13 个百分点（ppt）。

Affin Bank and BIMB experienced the least build-up by 2-3ppt.

Affin Bank和 BIMB 的增长最少，为 2-3 个百分点。

“So far, BNM has raised OPR by 100bps against a total 125bps reduction during the Covid-19 pandemic era.

“到目前为止，BNM已将 OPR 提高了 100 个基点，而在 Covid-19 大流行时期总共降低了 125 个基点。

“This suggests room for lesser rate hikes going forward, hurting NIM if CASA consumption happens later on and competition for FD escalates further,” read the note.

“这表明未来加息幅度较小，如果 CASA 消费稍后发生并且对 FD 的竞争进一步升级，则会损害 NIM，”该报告中写道。

Yet Chan reported that banks were still short-term net beneficiaries given loan-deposit repricing time differences.

然而，Chan 报告称，鉴于贷存重新定价的时间差异，银行仍是短期净受益者。

“We still view positively the banking sector and opine that the risk-reward profile is skewed to the upside; the combination of robust profit growth and undemanding valuations will be impetus driving performance,” Chan added.

“我们仍然看好银行业，并认为风险回报状况偏向上行；强劲的利润增长和不高的估值相结合，将推动业绩增长，”Chan 补充道。

Chan retained "overweight" for the banking sector.

Chan对银行业保持“增持”。

Maybank was favoured for its strong dividend yield while RHB for its high CET1 ratio and attractive price point.

Maybank因其强劲的股息收益率而受到青睐，而RHB则因其高 CET1 比率和有吸引力的价格点而受到青睐。

HLIB noted that small-sized banks were "buy" calls for separate reasons, such as BIMB for its laggard share price and Affin Bank for its special dividends potential and strong financial metrics. Alliance Bank was noted for its cash dividend yield of 6% to 7% and large management provision overlay buffer.

HLIB 指出，小型银行出于不同的原因“买入”呼吁，例如 BIMB 的股价落后，而Affin Bank的特别股息潜力和强劲的财务指标。Alliance Bank以其 6% 至 7% 的现金股息收益率和庞大的管理准备覆盖缓冲而闻名。