Auto sector’s TIV set to rise by 2% to 690,000 in 2023
The automotive sector’s total industry volume (TIV) is expected to increase by two % or 690,000 units in 2023 from an estimated 680,000 units in 2022, driven by the continued delivery of order backlogs, said Kenanga Research.
Kenanga Research表示，由于订单积压的持续交付，汽车行业的行业总销量（TIV）预计将从2022年的估计68万辆增长2%，即2023年的69万辆。
In a note, it said its projection is more upbeat than the forecast of 636,000 units by the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA).
该公司在一份报告中表示，其预测比马来西亚汽车协会（MAA）预测的636,000辆更加乐观。
“We believe the odds are in favour of MAA raising its number along the way. The vehicle sales in 2023 will be driven by the continued delivery of order backlogs to the tune of 350,000 units (as at end-October 2022), which was unchanged compared to three months ago, indicating that deliveries had been replenished with strong new bookings especially for attractive new models even in the absence the Sales and Service Tax (SST) exemption.
“我们相信MAA在此过程中提高其数量的可能性很大。2023年的汽车销量将受到持续交付35万辆积压订单（截至2022年10月底）的推动，与三个月前相比持平，这表明即使没有销售和服务税（SST）豁免，交付量也得到了强劲的新订单的补充，特别是有吸引力的新车型。
“Additionally, the vehicle sales will be supported by launches of new battery electric vehicles which will enjoy SST exemption and other electric vehicle facilities incentives up to 2023 for completely built-up (CBU) and 2025 for completely knocked-down (CKD),” it said.
“此外，汽车销售将受到推出新型电池电动汽车的支持，这些电动汽车将享受SST豁免和其他电动汽车设施激励措施，直到2023年完全建成（CBU）和2025年完全拆卸（CKD），”它说。
Kenanga Research said vehicle sales would remain robust in 2023 supported by the reopening of the economy; financial assistance to the low-income group and subsidies on fuels, electricity and selected food items to keep the cost of living in check; a relatively stable job market; and healthy household balance sheets of the M40 (middle 40 % income) group.
Kenanga Research表示，在经济重新开放的支持下，2023年汽车销售将保持强劲;向低收入群体提供财政援助，并就燃料、电力和选定的食品提供补贴，以控制生活费用;相对稳定的就业市场;以及M40（中间40%收入）组的健康家庭资产负债表。
The research house also said it was unperturbed by the impact of the rising interest rates on vehicle sales.
该研究公司还表示，它不受利率上升对汽车销售的影响。
“Assuming that the Bank Negara Malaysia raised the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by another 25 basis points (bps) to 3.00 % in January 2023, taking the total OPR hike for 2022 and 2023 to a total of 125 bps (from 1.75 % to 3.00 %), this would only raise the monthly instalment for, say a Perodua Myvi AV priced at RM60,000 (90 % financing margin, five-year tenure), by about six % from RM978 to RM1,035,” it said.
“假设马来西亚国家银行在 2023 年 1 月将隔夜政策利率 （OPR） 再上调 25 个基点 （bps） 至 3.00%，使 2022 年和 2023 年的 OPR 总上调至 125 个基点（从 1.75% 到 3.00%），这只会提高每月分期付款， 比如说Perodua Myvi AV的价格为60,000令吉（90%的融资保证金，五年任期），从978令吉到1,035令吉，大约6%，“它说。
Kenanga Research also noted that the actual interest rates charged vary based on terms, financiers, car models, and the individual’s credit score, and newer popular models are most likely to be charged a lower effective interest rate range.
Kenanga Research还指出，收取的实际利率因条款，金融家，汽车型号和个人信用评分而异，而较新的流行型号最有可能收取较低的实际利率范围。